If you drafted David Johnson in dynasty in 2016, by season’s end you might have been salivating at the prospects of having an RB1 for years to come. A lot’s changed in five years (including my fashion sense, which has evolved from jeans and tee to sweats and tee). But with Mark Ingram moving 350 miles east to New Orleans, has a fantasy football door opened for Johnson? Could he be a weekly starter for the Texans, starting today?
What is David Johnson’s fantasy outlook?
Before leaving Houston, Ingram had accounted for 53% of the team’s rushing attempts while averaging a measly 3.2 yards per carry. By all accounts, Johnson has been a better fit for a 1-6 team that’s going nowhere, averaging a healthier 3.9 yards per carry and collecting an impressive 154 receiving yards on 9 receptions. While he’s been a far cry from vintage Johnson, he is Houston’s most complete back.
And “complete” is key when you’re looking for stable fantasy production. Johnson has earned 24 touches in the first half this year and 22 in the second half. For a team that’s trailed most of the season, passing-game usage is vital. He’s been targeted on 24 of 41 throws (59%) to Texan RBs.
Moreover, 24 of Johnson’s 46 touches (52%) have come while trailing. In other words, he has the potential to be a four-quarter back going forward.
Standing in his way (potentially) is the surprisingly underutilized Phillip Lindsay. In 2018 and 2019, Lindsay enjoyed back-to-back 1,000-yard-rushing and 35-reception seasons while finding the end zone 17 times for Denver. Last year, he was phased out due to the arrival of Melvin Gordon. Nevertheless, he ran pretty well (4.3 yards per carry) in a limited capacity.
There is a chance Lindsay could step into the Ingram role. It’s slim given Lindsay’s 2021 workload so far. But it’s tangible given what we’ve seen from him during his brief career.
Is David Johnson fantasy relevant in Week 8?
The challenge is that it might take a couple of weeks to determine Johnson’s and Lindsay’s fantasy values. Today’s matchup with the Rams could be brutal. If Davis Mills is forced to pass early and often, Johnson should have the edge. But next week in Miami will be a good test, as the Texans should find more running lanes and scoring opportunities.
For now, Johnson is a risky RB3/4, while Lindsay is a more TD-dependent RB4/5. Once they go on their Week 10 bye, we should have a clearer sense of whether either — or neither — is a weekly fantasy starter.