Twice this season, I’ve picked up a backup RB Sunday morning, just in case the starter got hurt. Both times, the starter has gotten hurt. It happened when I picked up Damien Williams a few hours before David Montgomery was injured in Week 4, and it happened after I picked up Kenneth Gainwell last Sunday. This is not cause for celebration, obviously. I want an injury-free NFL season as much as anyone. But if we play the percentages in fantasy football, sometimes they go our way. Now the question is, with Miles Sanders on injured reserve, can we trust Gainwell, Boston Scott, or Jordan Howard in Week 8?
Should you start Kenneth Gainwell today?
Full disclosure: I’m starting Gainwell in my league today. Also, full disclosure: I care more about making accurate predictions than winning my league. Yeah, I’m strange like that.
There is a lot to like about the Eagles’ rookie playmaker today. It begins with their opponent, the dreadful Detroit Lions. Seriously, this team is hurting. The Lions have the league’s worst pass defense, as opposing QBs are averaging a 114.5 QB rating. On the ground, they’re actually significantly better, yielding only 4.1 yards per carry. So that hurts running backs like Gainwell, right?
Not right. Gainwell does a lot of his damage through the air, not on the ground. He’s second on the Eagles with 31 targets, converting them into 19 receptions for 164 yards and a touchdown. Yes, his ground game is terrific: 26 carries for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns. But that’s not why you’re starting Gainwell today. You’re starting him because without Sanders, his floor is considerably higher than most non-bell cows, as he should be one of Philadelphia’s top-targeted players once again.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Lions have given up 6 TDs to opposing RBs this year, tied with Washington for the most in the NFL. They have also allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs (just behind the Jets). There’s nothing safe about Gainwell. But his realistic ceiling is easily around an RB2, making him worth the fantasy start in most leagues.
Should you start Boston Scott today?
Here’s some blunt talk on Scott. Maybe you don’t need to hear it. But I’m here, so let’s give it a go. Scott was not supposed to be part of the Eagles’ 2021 game plan. Entering Week 7, he had only 2 touches on the season. He’s an entirely adequate complementary back who can be used in the running game and passing game.
However, he’s a free agent after this season. The Eagles know what they have with him. He’s a third-string NFL RB who can plug holes when needed. But featuring him at the expense of Gainwell wouldn’t make sense, especially given how much they’ve deployed Gainwell so far.
I view Scott as a desperation RB5. Against Detroit, any Eagles RB could find the end zone, so Scott certainly could get a TD. But he’ll be lucky to crack 7+ points.
Should you start Jordan Howard today?
Did you know Howard is still only 26 years old? Yet, he hasn’t enjoyed a productive fantasy season since 2018. In 2020, Howard averaged 1.7 yards per carry on 60 rushing attempts. He did score 4 times because goal-line touches are his specialty. And that sums up Howard these days. Signed off the practice squad less than two months after the Eagles released him, Howard is headed toward a stat line that reads something like 5 carries for 14 yards.