Some teams retool, some rebuild, and some revamp. The retooled Indianapolis Colts host the rebuilding New York Jets to kick off Week 9 tonight. In this Thursday Night Football prediction, let’s dive into a Jets vs. Colts pick and determine the best play for this NFL betting opportunity.
Thursday Night Football Picks: Jets vs. Colts Prediction
We open Week 9 with two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. After spending the No. 2 overall pick on quarterback Zach Wilson, New York expected to land its franchise signal-caller. After seven weeks of inconsistent play and a Mike White renaissance, there are more questions than there are answers.
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The Colts, meanwhile, have gone Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz. While never genuinely rebuilding, Indianapolis is the standard-bearer for retooling your team while remaining relevant the entire time.
The Big Apple pressure
Imagine moving from a non-Power Five conference with lesser talent and media hype to the most prominent media conglomerate in existence. That extreme difference could create unnecessary pressure for anyone, let alone someone expected to turn around an entire franchise. Add in a rookie head coach, and much of the Jets’ futility can be explained.
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Offensively, New York is dead last in the league in expected points added per dropback. Their run game hasn’t provided much reprieve either, as they rank 25th overall on the ground. This combination has led the Jets’ to rank as the second-worst offense in EPA/play. Wilson is also the 33rd-ranked quarterback in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite.
The DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric) story paints a similar picture. New York ranks 28th in total offense thanks to the No. 30 passing attack and the No. 19 ground unit. Given this discrepancy in offensive performance, it would seem beneficial for the Jets to run the ball and create a more balanced attack for their quarterback. However, they’ll be facing the Colts’ excellent run defense in this game.
This season, the Jets have experienced the 11th-easiest schedule but still rank near the absolute bottom of every offensive metric. Thus, Indianapolis should have a field day stopping the New York attack. After an exciting home win against the Cincinnati Bengals last week at the Meadowlands, will New York have another explosive performance against Indianapolis in tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction?
Crossroads of America
After a heartbreaking loss to the division-rival Tennessee Titans, the Colts will come into this game attempting to fix certain aspects of their team. Although Wentz’s advanced metrics looked elite just two weeks ago, they have come back down to earth as of late. He is now the 20th-ranked quarterback regarding the EPA + CPOE composite and has made a few questionable decisions in critical points over the last few games.
As a team, Indianapolis ranks 14th in total offense DVOA, with the ground attack leading the way. They rank top five when running the ball with Jonathan Taylor but drop to 18th when attacking through the air. Considering New York’s inability to stop the run or the pass, it shouldn’t matter much to Indianapolis which offensive attack they should employ. This year, the Colts have faced the fifth-easiest schedule for offenses but rank in the middle in terms of efficiency.
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Defensively, the Colts have a decent gap between their secondary and front seven. Looking strictly at EPA, Indianapolis has the second-best front seven in the league, only behind the Buffalo Bills. The Colts also field the No. 11 secondary per EPA. DVOA varies from EPA, as Indianapolis is the league’s best at stopping the run, yet rank 20th against the pass.
The Colts have faced the ninth-hardest schedule for defenses but have still managed to post decent numbers. They have a top-ranked front seven after facing Derrick Henry twice. This should bode well for Indianapolis since a good run game and defense are critical components for road teams — and the Jets have neither.
Jets vs. Colts prediction and pick
The Mike White Experience was a feel-good story this past week as the Jets knocked off the Bengals. However, this is reality, and the Not For Long league comes calling eventually.
This time, New York is on the road instead of at home, and Indianapolis is a hostile environment. Given that the Colts are the second-best team in the NFL at stopping the run and have a secondary fully capable of shutting down a journeyman quarterback, I don’t expect a repeat for Mr. White in tonight’s matchup.
Indianapolis should enter this game focused on limiting Wentz’s mistakes and deploying a ground attack featuring Taylor. The clock will continue to run in this game, leading to the under 45.5 points as the pick in tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction.