Two teams expected to improve on last season’s performance face off in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction. The inconsistent Kansas City Chiefs host the moribund New York Giants in our Week 8 Monday Night Football pick. In this matchup, let’s dive into the Giants vs. Chiefs game and determine the best pick for this NFL betting prediction.
Monday Night Football Pick: Giants vs. Chiefs Prediction
We close out Week 8 with two teams failing to live up to their potential. After appearing in last season’s Super Bowl and significantly improving their offensive line, the Chiefs’ poor defense has been the story this year.
The Giants were expecting improvement from both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley this year, but injuries and ineffectiveness have limited Big Blue. Do the Giants have enough talent on offense to compete with the Chiefs as a pick in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction?
To be or not to be, that is the question
Will the real Daniel Jones please stand up? Since what was a seemingly promising rookie season, Jones has failed to live up to expectations. He threw 11 touchdowns last season in 14 games and is on pace to do the same this year. This comes after a solid rookie campaign in which he threw 24 TDs to only 12 INTs.
While leading the attack this season, Jones has plummeted the New York offense to a No. 22 rank in pass EPA (expected points added), while the rushing attack has been even worse at 24th overall. Things are even grimmer in DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric), as the Giants rank 27th overall offensively, 25th in passing, and 29th on the ground.
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The strength of this team was supposed to be the defense, but that hasn’t panned out either. The Giants are bottom-10 in nearly every category. New York’s defense is 23rd in EPA, with its rush defense ranking slightly worse than its secondary. They do fair better according to defense DVOA — they rank 19th in the league, with their 16th-ranked secondary bolstering the unit.
With not much going for them offensively nor defensively, will New York be able to remain competitive enough for a pick in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction?
Drama-filled television
Earth to Kansas City, we have a problem. A Patrick Mahomes-led offense with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce was held to 3 points against a bottom-10 Titans defense. That’s not something you’d expect with the Chiefs coming off a Super Bowl appearance just eight months ago. Add in all the external noise — including sky-high preseason expectations –, and you have a recipe for disaster.
No one specific unit is to blame for the defensive inadequacies in Kansas City. They are ranked 31st across the board in total defense, pass defense, and rush defense, according to DVOA. Things remain bleak in EPA as well, as the Chiefs rank 29th against the pass and 30th against the run. It remains to be seen if they will be able to right the ship and make a playoff push. However, I would trust this unit to turn itself around with the talent they have.
When focusing on the Kansas City offense, one must consider the fact that they are failing due to a relatively new offensive line. Mahomes’ elusive ability likely causes the line to expect the pass or him to evade rushers often. Because if that isn’t the case, then the discrepancy between the rushing and passing numbers lies solely on the running back play. The Chiefs rank fifth in passing EPA but are 21st when rushing the ball. Per DVOA, however, Kansas City is a top-10 offense in both the passing and running game.
Will the Chiefs’ offense do enough against the Giants’ defense in tonight’s Monday Night Football pick?
Giants vs. Chiefs prediction and pick
The stats point to a Chiefs victory — with ease. Both teams have poor defenses, with Kansas City ranking 10 spots worse in total defense. A good defense can always produce poor results when required to stay on the field for extended periods. Tonight’s matchup will likely see the Chiefs’ offense manage long and tiresome drives against the Giants’ defense. In turn, New York’s bottom-tier offense will give the ball back often — a recipe for a blowout.
I’m trusting Kansas City’s defense to turn it around tonight and limit the G-Men to around 20-24 points. The Chiefs should expose the New York defense to the tune of 30+ points. Prime-time games tend to be wonky, but I’ll take the Chiefs -4 and the over 45.5 points in a 6.5-point teaser. I expect an easy Kansas City victory — by more than a field goal — as both offenses put points on the board against poor defenses in this Monday Night Football pick.