The streaking Green Bay Packers host the slumping Washington Football Team at Lambeau Field Sunday. After an embarrassing Week 1 loss to New Orleans, the Packers have won five straight, including three by double digits. The Packers are one of four NFC teams at 5-1 and enter Week 7 as the conference’s 4 seed. WFT, meanwhile, is facing its third potential playoff team in as many weeks — losing by multiple scores to both the Saints and Chiefs. And yet, Washington is just a game out of the 7 seed. This is the 39th meeting between these teams in a series that dates back to the Hoover administration.
Washington Football Team offense vs. Green Bay Packers defense
Through six weeks, NFL teams have scored roughly 24 points per game. WFT, however, has been below that mark in four games — all losses. Even more troubling: they were bad last week — 13 points, 15 first downs, 4.8 yards per play, 0 red-zone trips — against the Kansas City Chiefs, who might have the worst defense in football.
The Packers are good on defense and getting better by the week. Green Bay sacked Bears quarterback Justin Fields 4 times and limited him to 6.4 yards per pass in a 24-14 victory at Soldier Field. The Packers are fifth in total defense (315 yards per game), sixth in defensive efficiency (5.2 yards per play), yet 13th in scoring defense (22.7).
How so? Green Bay has allowed their opponents to score touchdowns on every single red-zone trip this season.
Taylor Heinicke vs. Packers defense
Taylor Heinicke is slumping as much as his offense — he’s 24th in QBR (46.0), 23rd in passer rating (86.9), and has thrown 3 interceptions in the last two weeks. Some in Washington believe the reins are a bit too tight for a player who has thrived off-script in the past. Ball security is important, but so is playing loose.
“I feel like I’ve just been trying to be perfect and trying to make the perfect read every play,” Heinicke said this week. “It doesn’t really allow me to be who I am or allow me to be my best.”
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]The Packers are fourth in pass defense (206.5 yards per game), fifth in yards per pass (6.1), seventh in interception rate, and 14th in passer rating allowed. However, much of that résumé was built while Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander was on the field. But he’s on IR with a shoulder injury and might need season-ending surgery.
Advantage: Packers
WFT weapons vs. Packers defensive backs
Due to injury, the following WFT skill position players sat out practice Wednesday: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Cam Sims. Combined, they account for 54.5% of the team’s total yards and 64.2% of Washington’s offensive touchdowns.
So yeah, not great. Rookie Dyami Brown is banged up too. Samuel has, in particular, been a disappointment, catching 4 passes for 19 yards in two games since signing a three-year, $34.5 million contract in the offseason.
As we mentioned, no Alexander for the Packers this week (and perhaps not again in 2021). Furthermore, Kevin King has been both hurt (has missed half of Green Bay’s games) and ineffective (quarterbacks have a 149.1 passer rating when targeting him). That’s a bad combination. But all that has created an opportunity for rookie Eric Stokes to shine.
The 29th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has been excellent, limiting opponents to 5.9 yards per target and a 70.7 rating. Starters Darnell Savage Jr. and Adrian Amos have allowed a combined 4 touchdown passes this year.
Advantage: Packers
WFT offensive line vs. Packers defensive front
More bad injury news for the Football Team. Starting right tackle Sam Cosmi and starting right guard Brandon Scherff both missed Week 6 with ankle and knee injuries, respectively, and still aren’t 100%.
Cornelius Lucas and Wes Schweitzer took their places in the lineup last week and weren’t terrible. Heinicke wasn’t sacked (although he was hit 7 times), and Washington ran 4.9 yards per rush. Washington leads the NFL in sack rate (2.9%) but ranks 21st in yards per play (5.5) and 17th in yards per carry (4.1).
The Packers can be run on. They’ve allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the season — ninth-most in football. The Packers’ star pass rusher Za’Darius Smith will miss his sixth straight game with a back injury that needed surgery. Green Bay is still hopeful he can return at some point this season. Without him, they’ve struggled getting to the quarterback — with the exception of Rashan Gary, who has 11 quarterbacks hits. Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell leads all Packers defenders with 2 interceptions.
Advantage: WFT
Green Bay Packers offense vs. Washington Football Team defense
The Packers have averaged 28.2 points over their five-game winning streak. A big reason why is they’ve turned the ball over just twice during that stretch. That’s one fewer than they had in Week 1 alone.
Green Bay’s ability to possess the ball has helped prop up an offense that isn’t particularly dynamic. The Packers are middle of the pack in yards per play (5.7), first downs (21.0 per game), and third-down efficiency (40.6%). They have just 34 explosive plays in 364 offensive snaps.
Prior to the Chiefs game, WFT had been good at keeping the ball in front of them. Washington ranks 12th in explosive pass plays allowed. But Patrick Mahomes had 6 completions of 20+ yards in Week 6, a big reason why he went for 397 on the game. That breakdown helped push WFT’s total defense ranking all the way down to 31st (423 yards per game). Washington has allowed the second-most first downs in football (24.7) and are last in third-down defense (57.8%).
Aaron Rodgers vs. WFT defense
Let’s take a moment to appreciate just how good Rodgers was last year. He was a deserving MVP after leading the NFL in the most important quarterback stats. He’s still really good in 2021, but not as good. Rodgers’ completion percentage (66.7%), touchdown rate (6.5%), interception rate (1.6%), yards per attempt (7.7), passer rating (104.6), and QBR (65.6) are worse than last year — and some significantly so.
But this could be just the weekend to get those numbers back on track. WFT has allowed the most passing yards in football (309.5) and 7.7 yards per attempt through six weeks. Rodgers is really good at not throwing picks, and Washington is really bad at intercepting the ball. The Football Team’s pick rate (1.7%) ranks 24th.
Advantage: Rodgers
Packers weapons vs. WFT defensive backs
If there were no franchise tag, Davante Adams would be about five months shy of signing the richest WR contract in NFL history. Adams is in the final year of his existing contract and would fetch upwards of $30 million annually if allowed to reach the open market. But the Packers could — and probably will — tag him if the two sides cannot agree on an extension.
That surely would not sit well with Adams, who leads the NFL in receiving yards (668) and is second in targets (66). Just how reliant on Adams is Rodgers? Davante has four times more receiving yards than any other Packers receiver. Aaron Jones is having another strong year, averaging 91.8 yards from scrimmage per game.
As for Washington’s secondary, where to begin? Perhaps with Landon Collins, who was so ineffective at safety in the season’s first month that he’s essentially switched positions. Collins is now an undersized linebacker after being exposed in coverage (he’s given up 5 touchdowns in 29 targets).
But let’s not pick on any one player here. Safety Kamren Curl has a 104.9 passer rating against, and teams have completed nearly 70% of their attempts against Kendall Fuller.
Advantage: Packers
Packers offensive line vs. WFT defensive front
This week, the big news out of Green Bay was the return of All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, who before Wednesday had not practiced since tearing his ACL on New Year’s Eve. The Packers have three weeks to activate Bakhtiari from the physically unable to perform list.
In the meantime, it’ll be Elgton Jenkins at left tackle. Left guard Jon Runyan and center Josh Myers have yet to allow a sack. That’s good. Right guard Royce Newman has allowed 4. That’s bad. The Packers rank 15th in yards per carry (4.2) and 20th in sack rate (7.3%).
Is Washington’s defensive line the most underachieving position group in all of football?
With four first-rounders across the front, WFT was supposed to dominate in the trenches this year. That has not happened. Yes, Jonathan Allen has been phenomenal — 5 tackles for loss and 14 quarterback hits — but the Football Team had to have expected more than 4.5 sacks combined from Chase Young and Montez Sweat at this point in the season. They’re too talented as a team to rank 24th in sack rate (5.0%).
Advantage: WFT
Betting line and game prediction
This has all the makings of a blowout. The Packers aren’t just better — they’re way better based on advanced stats. WFT is underwater in point differential, yard differential, and allow 31 points per game. How is the line only GB -7.5?
Washington vs. Packers Prediction: Packers 35, WFT 10