How much more entertaining is this game now that we have first and second-round quarterbacks playing in it instead of some random third-rounder? No, this game doesn’t have the knockout power it once did with a healthy Russell Wilson, but the New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks game is still an important benchmark for Jameis Winston and this Saints offense.
New Orleans Saints offense vs. Seattle Seahawks defense
The Saints’ offense is everything the nerds hate. Usually, I’d sit here and nod my head, as I am a fan of passing the football. However, in this instance, I am APPALLED that Sean Payton is hiding Winston from us! It’s an absolute travesty that we don’t get to see him sling it around the yard!
Nobody throws less often than the Saints, who are 15% below the league average. Their 45% pass rate is 4% less than the next-closest team, the Chicago Bears, who have no offensive line and a rookie quarterback.
I’d say it doesn’t make sense, but in a way particular to the Saints, it does. See, nothing about this team makes any sense. They dismantled the Packers, lost to the Panthers in dominating fashion, then beat the Patriots, only to lose to the Giants, before stomping on the Football Team.
Are they good, or are they bad? Their offense is more efficient through the air according to both DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and EPA (Expected Points Added), but for how often they’re running the ball, their success rate is high, ranking eighth in the league. Still, their rushing EPA ranks 23rd in the NFL.
Because failed fourth-down conversions or fumbles haven’t crushed them, that probably means they are rushing successfully but not picking up huge chunks on the ground. They’re also not scoring many rushing touchdowns, either (5 compared to 12 through the air).
Seattle’s defense is bad, and after the terrifying injury to Darrell Taylor last week, it’s going to be even more difficult for this unit to get stops if he can’t play or isn’t 100% on Sunday.
Jameis Winston vs. Seahawks defense
The world is a better, more entertaining place when Winston is slinging it around the yard. For instance, against Washington, he completed 50% of his passes. Given the difficulty of his targets, that was only a -7.8 CPOE, according to Next Gen Stats. People joke about “calling the touchdown play,” but Jameis lives that life. It’s magical.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]I believe this game is vital because Winston should have time to deliver the football in a cleaner pocket against Seattle. His receivers, as uninspiring a group as it may be, should find some space. The Seahawks game is a significant benchmark for the Saints’ passing attack. If Winston doesn’t revert to pre-LASIK Jameis, he should carve up this secondary.
Advantage: Winston
Saints weapons vs. Seahawks defensive backs
The battle of a stoppable force meeting a moveable object strikes again. Aside from Winston’s history, it’s fair to believe that Payton has refrained from his aggressive nature because the Saints’ receiving corps is about as insipid as I’ve seen in recent years. Only the current iteration of the Lions group rivals it.
Deonte Harris is the team’s leading receiver, averaging 47.2 yards per game through five games. Marquez Callaway is right behind him. But the team’s leader in receptions is Alvin Kamara, who is responsible for 47.6% of the overall offensive touches and leads the team in receptions with 15.
You read that correctly. The team’s leading receiver averages 3 catches per game. I know the colors are similar to Army’s, but good grief, guys!
Meanwhile, many jokes are made about Jamal Adams in coverage, but for the most part, he performs fine. He has a hilarious lack of ball skills, but as Dr. Wenowdis would say, “We know this.”
The rest of the unit struggles as well. They’re running more two-high concepts, but it’s still, for the most part, a very bare-bones quarters look aimed at efficiency rather than disguise.
Advantage: Push
Saints offensive line vs. Seahawks front seven
The return of Terron Armstead and Erik McCoy should give the Saints’ offense a boost of consistency. McCoy is one of the better interior blockers in the NFL, and Armstead is one of, if not the best left tackle in the game. In summation, it really wouldn’t matter who they play.
The Seahawks have some solid run defenders in Al Woods and Poona Ford along with Carlos Dunlap on the edge, but they aren’t having themselves a day against this offensive line — as long as McCoy and Armstead are close to 100%.
Advantage: Saints
New Orleans Saints defense vs. Seattle Seahawks offense
I have more fun watching the Saints play defense than any other team in the NFL. They’ve remained one of the most consistent units in football dating back years now. That consistency is something nearly unheard of on the defensive side of the ball in modern football. Once again, they rank deep inside the top 10 in defensive efficiency, and they’re getting their best interior defender back next week.
The Saints communicate so well defensively. They match up well and rarely suffer from blown coverages, the one thing that beats the more modern match-zone and man schemes.
Meanwhile, after a hot start in relief of Mr. Unlimited, Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ offense has crashed back down to Earth. They rank 25th in the NFL the past two weeks in EPA/play. This was a team, and an offense, propped up for a while now by the heroics of Wilson.
Without him, it will remain an ugly product.
Geno Smith vs. Saints defense
It’s simply not fair. Smith deserves a chance to succeed. Unfortunately, behind this offensive line, and against this defense, there just isn’t much to paint with rose-colored glasses.
The Saints’ defense ranks fourth in EPA/play overall. They’re fifth in dropback EPA and in rush EPA. From a success rate perspective, they rank eighth in dropback and sixth in rushing success rates. DVOA tells a slightly different story, as New Orleans ranks ninth in pass DVOA and second against the run.
Advantage: Saints
Seahawks weapons vs. Saints defensive backs
This is the one singular matchup that is most intriguing in this game. I’m not sure if Smith will consistently get the ball to his weapons, but that doesn’t mean the weapons are lacking separation. Having DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is a huge plus for any offense.
Paulson Adebo is a great physical matchup against Metcalf. He’s big and physical for a cornerback, but more linear as a mover, which matches up with the chiseled stone physique of Metcalf.
The one negative with the Saints’ defense is their decision to play their corners to a side. From an efficiency perspective, it’s smart. It allows their cornerbacks and safeties to focus on one or possibly two positions to perfect. However, the downside is it allows offenses to more easily gameplan their stars away from the likes of Marshon Lattimore.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t matter.
Advantage: Saints
Seahawks offensive line vs. Saints front seven
The Saints have had one of the most consistently underrated linebackers of our generation now for years in Demario Davis. Now, they have a player beside him who may eventually hold that same title. Pete Werner has been impressive so far for the Saints, and now that he’ll have a nice sample size after this week, he will be able to join the likes of the rest of this defensive draft class in the rookie rankings.
Getting David Onyemata back next week will be huge, but still, the Saints have some dudes on the defensive line as well. Payton Turner has flashed as a rookie, and if he can sponge off Cam Jordan, the Saints could have another big, physical, technician at defensive end for years to come. Shy Tuttle is one of the more underrated interior defenders in the league as well.
Conversely, Duane Brown has been outstanding for the Seahawks over the past two seasons. Aside from him, it’s tough to get excited about Seattle’s offensive line. It’s certainly not the turnstile it’s been in the past, but it’s still the sore point on the offense.
Advantage: Saints
Betting line and game prediction
The Saints vs. Seahawks game currently favors New Orleans by 4.5 on the road. The 12th man probably gives the Seahawks the 3-point home advantage that many believe exists league-wide, but actually doesn’t.
If the Saints show up and play to the level they’re capable of, they’ll win this Monday Night Football game walking away. Unfortunately, we have absolutely no clue what to expect on a week-to-week basis from this football team.
The Saints have been incredible after the bye during Payton’s tenure, but how much of that was due to Drew Brees and good football teams? Nevertheless, I’m not going to bet against Payton’s bye-week résumé. Therefore, the Saints win, and they cover too.
Saints vs. Seahawks Prediction: Saints 27, Seahawks 20