For the second consecutive week, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London plays host to NFL football, with a Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars matchup to kick start Sunday of Week 6. The 1-4 Dolphins will be looking to get something going against the 0-5 Jaguars, with the pressure rising on both sets of coaches in what could prove a pivotal clash.
Miami Dolphins offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars defense
Despite winning the season opener against the New England Patriots and playing a decent Las Vegas Raiders team close in Week 3, the Dolphins have struggled to a 1-4 record through Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season. While there have been issues on both sides of the ball, the offense has been particularly anemic. From a passing perspective, they’ve surpassed 200 yards just once this year. Furthermore, the running game has been held under 50 yards in the last two contests.
As a result, the Dolphins currently rank 31st in points scored this season. Only the New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears have fewer passing yards per game. Averaging just 70.4 yards per game, the ground game is the worst in the NFL.
Thankfully for Miami, they meet a Jaguars defense who can match their offensive struggles this season. Urban Meyer’s Jacksonville defense ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in several key metrics ahead of the Dolphins vs. Jaguars. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions are giving up more yards per play than the 6.3 yards per play that Jacksonville has allowed so far in the 2021 NFL season.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Jaguars defense
The Dolphins’ chances of getting a second win of the season received a boost this week. Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned to practice for the first time since hitting injured reserve with a rib injury. In front of the assembled media in the UK on Friday, head coach Brian Flores announced that, barring any further setback, Tua will replace Jacoby Brissett under center for the Dolphins vs. Jaguars on Sunday.
Flores also addressed his expectation and advice for the second-year quarterback.
“My message is always the same for him. Clean operation, in and out of the huddle, be clear with the play call and go through his progression one play at a time. He has his specific progression that he goes through. And then, take the plays that are there. If there’s an opportunity for a big play, try and make it, but don’t force anything.”
But what can the Jaguars expect to see from Tua?
Through his first two games of the season, Tua completed just 54.8% of his 31 passing attempts for 1 touchdown and an interception. However, his ability to take those big plays that Flores mentioned is demonstrated with a 12.6 average yards per completion compared to Brissett’s 8.3 yards through three starts.
Basic statistics would suggest that the Jaguars provide the perfect opponent to ease Tua back into the offense and kick start the Dolphins’ offense. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most passing yards this season. Additionally, the Jaguars’ defense has snagged just 1 interception.
Advanced stats paint an even better opportunity for Tua and Miami’s offense. The Jaguars have allowed the second-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks in the NFL this season (73.5%). They’ve also given up the fourth-highest average yardage per completion at 13.0.
Dolphins offensive line vs. Jaguars defensive front
While the return of Tua is heralded as a positive for the Dolphins, Flores repeatedly reiterated his mantra that it takes all 53 players to make a team throughout his Friday press conference. Although quarterback has been a divisive issue amongst Dolphins fans even before Tua or Brissett came along, there can be no escaping that there are deeper issues at foot.
The offensive line has been in flux all season. The Dolphins haven’t had consecutive games where the line has fielded the same five starters in the same five positions. Only Robert Hunt has lined up at the same position (right guard) in all five games. As a result, they’ve allowed 16 sacks, the fourth-most in the 2021 NFL season. Furthermore, the offensive line woes have stymied the run game.
However, against the Jaguars on Sunday, the Dolphins will field the same offensive line they rolled out against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5, according to Flores. At some point, the Dolphins have to stop experimenting and build cohesion within the unit.
Facing a Jaguars defense that has been lackluster at getting after the quarterback seems a good place to start. Only the Philadelphia Eagles have fewer sacks than Jacksonville, despite the Jaguars managing to get pressure on 26.9% of their defensive snaps. Although the defensive front has allowed just 3.8 yards per carry, they’ve allowed the most rushing scores in the NFL this season with 9 touchdowns in five games.
Dolphins weapons vs. Jaguars defensive backs
Tua wasn’t the only pivotal Dolphins player to take to the practice field on Friday. After missing practice through the week, DeVante Parker was suited up and participated in stretches with the team before doing some light work on the sideline. However, the Dolphins have ruled him for Sunday.
It’s a major blow to Miami’s offense. On Friday, Tua had alluded to the need to maximize their entire roster of weapons, including 2021 NFL Draft first-round selection Jaylen Waddle.
“I think it’s important to get all our playmakers a chance in these games, early in the game so that we can build off of that momentum with them. I think we haven’t done a good job of doing that. Coming into this game that’s what we want to do, start off strong and finish strong.”
Both rookie Tyson Campbell and his cornerback compatriot Shaquill Griffin have allowed over 10 yards per completion and missed over 8% of their tackles for the Jaguars this season. As a result, the Dolphins’ receiving group should have ample opportunity at both the catch point and after the catch.
Advantage: Dolphins offense
Jaguars offense vs. Dolphins defense
While the Dolphins’ offense has been anemic this season, it’s been a tumultuous start to Trevor Lawrence’s career in the NFL. The Jaguars’ offense currently ranks 28th in total points. With 218.6 passing yards per game, their pass offense ranks 27th in the NFL through Week 5. They have been somewhat redeemed by a sixth-ranked rushing offense led by second-year running back James Robinson.
Meanwhile, a Dolphins defense that had been the strength of the team last season has been torn apart at times. They’ve allowed the third-most total points in the NFL to this point. The Dolphins have actually allowed more passing yards per game than the Jaguars unit that we’ve just discussed and dissected above. Furthermore, the Dolphins have allowed more yards per carry and per game on the ground than the Jaguars.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Dolphins defense
It’s been a baptism of fire for the 2021 No. 1 overall pick. There has been an unfair level of expectation that Lawrence could propel an awful Jaguars team into a contender overnight. As I repeatedly stated during the draft process, one swallow does not a summer make. It was always going to take more than just the former Clemson quarterback to turn around this franchise.
Yet, after his imperious college career, there were always going to be lofty expectations. Yes, Lawrence has provided some awe-inspiring NFL throws early in his career. However, the numbers are nowhere near what fans expected early in his career.
The Jaguars’ quarterback has completed just 59.4% of his passes. While 3.4% of his passes have gone for touchdowns, 4.6% have resulted in interceptions. Only fellow rookie Zach Wilson has thrown more interceptions than Lawrence’s 8 picks. It’s almost as if playing in the NFL is hard. Who knew?
Despite this, Flores reserved some words of respect for Lawrence ahead of the Dolphins vs. Jaguars:
“Improvement every week. Better feel for the game, better feel for what teams are trying to do to him defensively. He’s talented. Big arm, athletic, smart. And he’s getting better every week.”
Although the Dolphins’ defense has been dismal compared to their dominance last season, the passing defense hasn’t been as atrocious statistically as you might expect. They’ve been middle of the pack this season with a 67.5% completion rate allowed. Their 11.8 yards per completion allowed also sits middle of the pack.
Jaguars weapons vs. Dolphins defensive backs
However, there are some metrics where the Dolphins are far from the middle of the pack. These were painfully obvious in the defeat to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers’ receivers had it far too easy, seemingly allowed too much space to operate. When they were unable to create separation, they dominated the catch point, and there were too many missed tackles.
As a result, the Dolphins have allowed a touchdown on 6.3% of passing plays, fifth-worst in the NFL. They’ve allowed 8.0 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks (ninth-worst), and they’ve given up 841 air yards so far in 2021 (third-most). For comparison, the much-maligned Buccaneers secondary has given up fewer air yards through six games than the Dolphins have in five.
While the Dolphins lament the loss of Parker, the Jaguars will also be without their most significant offensive weapon, as DJ Chark recovers from a serious foot injury. In Laviska Shenault Jr. and Marvin Jones, Jacksonville has a pair of offensive weapons that can take advantage of any defensive opportunity.
That opportunity has been heightened by the Dolphins ruling out star cornerback Xavien Howard, who hasn’t practiced all week. Cornerback Byron Jones is also listed as questionable, which could force the Dolphins rely on inexperienced playmakers in the secondary on Sunday.
Jaguars offensive line vs. Dolphins defensive front
Although the Jaguars’ passing offense has struggled this season, their offensive line has allowed just 8 sacks so far. Lawrence’s 2.9 seconds time to throw ranks seventh in the NFL, suggesting he’s had some time to go to work in the pocket. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense has forced just 9 sacks while putting pressure on the opposing QB on just 23.2% of defensive snaps.
The most intriguing element of this matchup is whether the Dolphins can stop the Jaguars’ rushing attack. As mentioned above, the Dolphins have given up more on the ground than the Jaguars this year. They’ve allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry, while averaging 133.6 yards per game. They’ve also given up 6 rushing touchdowns.
Miami comes up against an in-form Robinson. Last week, the second-year RB ran the rock at 8.3 yards per clip against the Tennessee Titans, tallying 149 rushing yards. He’s currently averaging more yards per carry and per game than in his impressive rookie season that saw him go over 1,000 rushing yards for the season.
While the focus will be on Lawrence, Robinson could be the pivotal part of the battle between the Dolphins defense and Jaguars offense.
Advantage: Jaguars offense
Betting line and prediction for Dolphins vs. Jaguars
With Jacksonville sitting winless ahead of Dolphins vs. Jaguars, Miami is an understandable road favorite. At the time of writing, DraftKings is offering a moneyline of -110 on the Dolphins. However, they appear to be predicting a tight game, with a spread of -3 in favor of Miami.
With the Dolphins’ defensive struggles compounded by Howard not suiting up on Sunday, you can definitely see a way for the Jaguars to win the game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Robinson run for 150+ in a Jacksonville win.
However, the return of Tua to the starting lineup may just be enough to galvanize the Dolphins’ offense.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jacksonville 21