The Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game feels a lot different now without Russell Wilson. I wouldn’t have believed you last week if you told me the Steelers — who rank 20th in PFN’s NFL Power Rankings — would be the favorite here. Unfortunately for Seattle, that’s how much Wilson means to their football team. Luckily for the Steelers, they’ve faced the Bills, Broncos, and now the Seahawks at their lowest points.
Seattle Seahawks offense vs. Pittsburgh Steelers defense
It’s difficult to expect anything from Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ offense over the next 6-8 weeks. Sure, Smith had a higher EPA/play than Wilson last week, but his success rate as a passer ranked 22nd for the week, while his CPOE was 7.3% lower than Wilson’s. That indicates that a few big plays added many expected points — but that’s not necessarily a sustainable approach.
It’s a small sample, but Smith does have nearly 1,000 career attempts we can look at as a possible projection. However, given that we haven’t seen much from him since 2014, Smith is a lottery ticket. But how often do you make money off those?
The Steelers’ defense is probably bad, but it’s elevated by the play of their outstanding defensive line. They still get average to below-average results overall, but they’re decently strong against the run. They’re 20th in both dropback EPA and DVOA. This shouldn’t be surprising, considering their offseason and injury losses at cornerback.
Geno Smith vs. Steelers defense
In his first start since 2017, Smith must face Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt. That’s less than ideal. Additionally, Alex Highsmith brings juice off the edge, and Melvin Ingram III is one of the better power rushers in the NFL.
Advantage: Steelers
Seahawks weapons vs. Steelers defensive backs
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are the only things that matter. Together, they make up 54% of the passing targets and 58% of the receiving production in Seattle. The ball doesn’t get spread around too much in the Pacific Northwest.
The Steelers don’t have an answer for that duo in their secondary. Terrell Edmunds is playing better football than he did early in his career, but Minkah Fitzpatrick hasn’t been his usual self this season. He’s still a fine player, but there is a lot more ground to cover when James Pierre is the cornerback opposite of Joe Haden.
Advantage: Seahawks
Seahawks offensive line vs. Steelers front seven
Shield your eyes, children. Nobody should have to see atrocities of this magnitude. The Seahawks’ offensive line isn’t as bad as we’ve seen in the past. However, the Steelers can rush the passer from every conceivable spot along the defensive line in multiple personnel packages.
They don’t even blitz often, yet they still get pressure consistently. Aside from Duane Brown, I don’t see Seattle’s offensive line surviving. The Steelers’ run defense is a bright spot, and it feels like there could be a bunch of third-and-longs in this OL’s future.
Advantage: Steelers
Seattle Seahawks defense vs. Pittsburgh Steelers offense
We don’t have to bring up the distant past anymore. This Seahawks defense is bad, and it’s been unserious for quite some time. The NFL moves quickly. We need to move on with the same ferocity. After all, Seattle’s defense ranks in the mid-20s.
Luckily for the Seahawks, the Steelers’ offense is about as bad as their defense. Heck, it might even be worse. The Steelers rank 25th in EPA/play, and they’re equally lousy passing and running the ball.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Seahawks defense
Only Zach Wilson has a lower success rate as a passer than Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger’s been arguably the worst non-rookie QB in the NFL aside from his performance against the Broncos when it looked like he rose from a quarterback grave. I don’t expect consistent performance from him, but this Seahawks defense could give Steelers fans hope for their 2021 future.
Advantage: Steelers
Steelers weapons vs. Seahawks defensive backs
All of the Steelers’ top receivers not named Diontae Johnson are banged up, and even he’s always on the verge of a minor injury. However, even if it’s just Johnson healthy for Sunday, the Steelers would still have the advantage because Najee Harris can be a weapon out of the backfield. Between Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron, the Steelers also survive at tight end.
Advantage: Steelers
Steelers offensive line vs. Seahawks front seven
The Seattle front seven isn’t a dominating force, but they might look like one compared to the Steelers’ offensive line. Pittsburgh’s entire offensive line struggles, but it doesn’t hurt their team much. The Steelers can’t push the ball downfield consistently, but that’s as much because of Roethlisberger’s physical limitations as the team’s front five.
Advantage: Seahawks
Betting line and game prediction
Las Vegas currently has the Steelers as 5-point favorites in this game. Smith is a relative unknown for the Seahawks, but they’ve had 10 days of rest between games. With various injuries to the Steelers’ receiving corps, this Sunday Night Football matchup might be a sloppy one.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Seahawks 17