Newly acquired Houston Texans running back Duke Johnson was finally traded after demanding a trade all offseason. The Texans gave up a conditional 4th round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft which could turn into a 3rd for Johnson. This is pretty substantial draft capitol and gives some promise to Duke’s stock in Houston. How will this move affect fantasy football drafts?
With that being said, I don’t think we should all overreact. Lamar Miller is still the starter and Duke Johnson hasn’t even read through the playbook yet. Let’s talk about what this means for Lamar Miller, Duke Johnson, and the rest of the Houston Texans backfield.
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
Everyone has been waiting and trying to predict how and when Lamar Miller will lose starting job the last 2 offseason. They were hopeful that D’Onta Foreman would be the guy and his release caught all of them by surprise. They have new hope in the form of Duke Johnson who was brought in via trade this week. News flash, Lamar Miller is still the starting running back for the Houston Texans.
Everyone had really high expectations for Miller when he arrived via free agency in 2016. Since then Lamar Miller has not really reached those expectations as he has rarely been a top 10 fantasy football running back in the 3 seasons with the Houston Texans. In 2016, he finished 37th overall and the 17th best fantasy football running back. In 2017, he finished 38th overall and the 13th best fantasy football running back. In 2018, he finished in as the 59th overall fantasy player and the 20th best fantasy football running back in only 14 games. He is consistently a top 20 running back and his current average draft position (ADP) is 5.08 and RB 27.
His ADP might drop even more and Miller is still worth grabbing the late 5th or early 6th as he is one of the last starting running backs available. Head Coach Bill O’Brien has also historically leaned primarily on his lead back which should get Miller enough volume to maintain his top 20 RB status. His upside is limited due to the passing volume that he receives as the Texans are amongst the lowest in the league in targeting running backs and wide receivers. I am still drafting Lamar Miller as my 3rd running back with his RB2 (top 24) RB upside.
Duke Johnson, Houston Texans
Duke Johnson has been waiting to breakout since he got into the league and he has yet to been able to get the lead role in any backfield. All offseason he has been trying to find his way out of Cleveland since 2018 2nd round pick Nick Chubb surpassed him on their depth chart. The situation got worse for Johnson when the Browns brought in Kareem Hunt. I am a fan of Johnson, but I still want everyone to temper expectations.
First of all, Duke Johnson is not an early down back and he wasn’t able to hold off anyone in Cleveland over his four seasons in order to make us think otherwise. Isaiah Crowell was able to hold off Johnson for the starting job. Johnson’s attempts have gone down each year from 104 rushing attempts to only 40 attempts all of last season. For his career he has only 5 rushing touchdowns and has never amassed over 379 yards in a season which he did his rookie year with those 104 rushing attempts. This is a pretty good sample size and I don’t expect him to all of a sudden turn into a workhorse.
Where he does excel is the passing game and he has hauled in 235 receptions with his 303 targets over his 4 seasons in Cleveland averaging over 9 yards per catch. There is no one in Houston that will compete with him for these targets and this part of his game should concern Miller owners as receiving targets are more valuable than rushing attempts in fantasy football. My concern with this is the lack of targets that Houston has historically given the running backs under Head Coach Bill O’Brien.
Houston was 25th overall in pass attempts in 2018 and they were 23rd in overall pass attempts in 2017. Out of the 506 total pass attempts in 2018, The running backs as a group received a total of 67 targets in 2018. Lamar Miller received over half of those targets, being targeted 35 times. Duke Johnson has never received less than 49 targets and will need to see the Texans change their ways to improve his fantasy football outlook in 2019.
Currently Johnson’s ADP is 152 overall an the 47th RB off of the board. If he stays in this range, he is definitely safe to go out and get in full or half point per reception formats. With Keke Coutee often sidelined, Duke could find a Theo Riddick type of role in this offense being targeted out of the backfield and being lined up in the slot. Johnson will likely not make your lineup on a weekly basis, but he does bring fringe flex value if we feel the Texans are going to be in a shootout.
I would buy Johnson at his current price and even if it goes up a little, I will still be a buyer. I wouldn’t be interested if he starts to creep up into the single digit rounds of your drafts. In the 10th round or higher I will take my shot on Johnson and bank on his receiving skills for production. Johnson is a valuable handcuff and if Miller were to go down, Johnson would be a must own.
Houston Texans, RB room
The glimmer of hope for rookies Damarea Crockett and Karan Higdon Jr. has closed. As of now Buddy Howell and Josh Ferguson are in the 3rd and 4th spots on the depth chart. They have already been surpassed by Duke Johnson and no one else on the Texans team is relevant for fantasy football purposes as of today.
Dontrell Hilliard, Cleveland Browns
A little bonus as this trade involved two teams. I am sure that a lot of you are googling to see who Dontrell Hilliard is. Hilliard does not have a draft profile on NFL.com, went undrafted in 2018, and came out of Tulane at 5’11” and 195 lbs. He made the Browns roster as a return specialist and has stayed on the roster. In 2018, he did not record a carry. He was active in 11 games and was only utilized in the passing game. Hilliard made the most of his 10 targets, catching 9 of them for 105 yards which is 11.67 yards a catch. This is an extremely small sample size, but shows us why the Browns held on to him and why they were able to let Duke Johnson go. Nick Chubb is not the ideal pass catcher and Kareem Hunt is suspended for the first 8 games. I think Hilliard is worth a shot at the very end of your drafts and will be a hot name on the rise this preseason.
David Heilman is a writer and Fantasy Football co-director for Pro Football Network. You can follow him at @DynastyDorks on Twitter.