We expected Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to dominate the NFC North. After a Week 1 hiccup, they’re well on their way. But the NFL has surprises every year, and the Cincinnati Bengals certainly qualify. Joe Burrow and the Bengals begin Week 5 in a three-way tie atop the AFC North. The Packers vs. Bengals game takes place Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium. Which division leader leaves victorious?
Green Bay Packers offense vs. Cincinnati Bengals defense
Matt LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett haven’t really gotten it going this season. Through four weeks, the Packers are 25th in yards (318), 22nd in yards per play (5.2), and tied for 20th in red-zone efficiency (60%). Green Bay’s scoring (23.8 per game) is down more than a touchdown compared to 2020.
We’ll see if they can get it together Sunday against a Bengals defense that is fifth in yards allowed per play (4.8), seventh in yards (323), and fifth in goal-to-go scoring (55.6%). Cincinnati is surrendering 18.8 points per game, the eighth-fewest in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Bengals defense
If Rodgers wants a fourth MVP award, he better pick up the pace. His numbers are down in completion percentage (64.5%), yards per pass (7.2), QBR (55.8), and passer rating (100.8). The biggest drag on his efficiency this year is his deep ball. He has the 10th-lowest completed air yards average (5.4) despite averaging the fifth-most intended air yards (9.2).
The Bengals’ defenders are good about keeping the action in front of them. Cincinnati ranks fifth in yards per pass (5.9) and 13th in both passing yards (229.5) and sack rate (7.1%). Don’t expect many interceptions, however. Rodgers doesn’t throw a ton, and Cincinnati’s defensive backs don’t pick off many.
Advantage: Rodgers
Packers weapons vs. Bengals defensive backs
This section is mistitled. It should really be Davante Adams vs. Bengals defensive backs. Adams has been a one-man wrecking machine. He leads the NFL with 31 catches (on 45 targets) and is fifth in receiving yards (373 at 12 yards per catch and 1 touchdown). No other Packers wide receiver has double-digit catches (Randall Cobb has 9 for 127 and 2 scores).
Rodgers has made up for that by throwing a bunch to his RBs, so it’s good Aaron Jones is contributing something through the air. His rushing has been below his lofty standards.
After four weeks, Jones ranks 22nd in rushing (206 yards at 3.7 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns). Next Gen Stats ranks him as the NFL’s third least-efficient runner. Jones hasn’t gotten it going despite seeing the second-fewest eight-man boxes in the NFL (3.57%).
The Bengals’ secondary is a talented group that could be excellent once they hit their stride. Their 5.9 yards-per-pass average is better than 27 NFL teams.
Chidobe Awuzie is a handful, limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 60% completion rate and 5.7 yards per target. Trae Waynes showed rust in his debut against the Jaguars, allowing all 3 of his targets to be completed for 70 yards, and he’s questionable to play Sunday with a hamstring injury. Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III are playmaking safeties who need to improve in coverage. Awuzie and Bell practiced this week after missing the game against the Jaguars with injuries.
Advantage: Push
Packers offensive line vs. Bengals defensive front
The Packers rolled out their No. 3 left tackle in Sunday’s win over the Steelers. David Bakhtiari is out for at least another two weeks (torn left ACL), and his playing-out-of-postion backup, Elgton Jenkins, couldn’t go due to an ankle injury. Jenkins is questionable for Sunday’s game. Plus starting center Josh Myers will not play with a finger injury.
None of this is ideal for a team that ranks 18th in sack rate (6.9%), 24th in rushing (92.5), and 28th in yards per rush (3.6). Rodgers, on average, has the seventh-shortest time to throw (2.59 seconds) among NFL quarterbacks. Left guard Jon Runyan and right tackle Billy Turner are bright spots on a mediocre unit.
The Bengals have a bunch of talent in their front seven, but three players, in particular, stand out. DT Larry Ogunjobi (who’s questionable with both a knee injury and illness) leads the team with 4 tackles for loss. DE Trey Hendrickson already has 6 quarterback hits, and LB Logan Wilson ranks second in the NFL in interceptions (3) and seventh in tackles (40). Cincinnati is tough to run on — ranking eighth in yards per carry (3.7) and ninth in rushing (93.5).
Advantage: Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals offense vs. Green Bay Packers defense
Bad injury news for Cincinnati: Joe Mixon (ankle) is 50-50, at best, to play. If he doesn’t, that would hurt in the red zone, where the Bengals have up until now been fantastic (75% of their trips have resulted in touchdowns, including all of their goal-to-go situations). But they’re not great on a down-in, down-out basis — as evidenced by their 16.8 first downs per game, fifth-fewest in football. Put it all together, and that makes for an offense 20th in scoring (23 points per game).
That should make for an interesting contrast with the Packers, who, despite ranking sixth in yards (311.5) and eighth in yards per play (5.2), still give up 25 points a game. Green Bay has allowed every red-zone trip by their opponents to result in a touchdown — one of just two teams that haven’t made a stop inside the 20. The Packers are bad on third down, too (48.8%, ranking 29th).
Joe Burrow vs. Packers defense
Let’s get that Pro Bowl Burrow campaign going now. Joey B ranks third in completion percentage (72.9%), fourth in yards per pass (9.2), and seventh in passer rating (113.8). Despite getting the ball out quickly (his 2.56 average time to throw is second-shortest in the NFL), he still ranks in the top 10 in completed air yards (6.7).
Burrow will face a banged-up Packers secondary that will be hard-pressed to live up to its rankings. The Packers enter the game eighth in passing (209.5), ninth in yards per pass allowed (6.1), and 13th in interception rate (2.2%).
Advantage: Burrow
Bengals weapons vs. Packers defensive backs
Since Tee Higgins was a full participant in practice Friday and is expected back this week from a shoulder injury, which looks increasingly likely, this could be an old-fashioned air raid.
Higgins would round out an impressive passing attack. Ja’Marr Chase leads all rookies with 297 receiving yards and is second in the NFL in touchdown receptions (4). His yards-per-catch average (17.5) is fifth among players with 3+ receptions. Because of Chase, opposing coaches can’t give Tyler Boyd and an emerging C.J. Uzomah the attention they deserve.
The Packers have all kinds of issues at corner. Jaire Alexander is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, and Kevin King has missed the last two games with a concussion. King is expected to play Sunday, but that could be good and bad news. Opposing quarterbacks have an aggregate passer rating of 156.2 against him this year.
Those injuries have given opportunities to first-round pick Eric Stokes — who is tied for second in the league with 6 passes defensed– and Chandon Sullivan. Safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage have combined to allow an 85% completion percentage.
Advantage: Bengals
Bengals offensive line vs. Packers front seven
The Bengals’ offensive line is better the farther from the ball one gets. The tackles — Jonah Williams and Riley Reiff — are more than solid. But the interior play, with Xavier Su’a-Filo set to miss his third straight game with a leg injury, has been rough. And it likely won’t get any better if starting center Trey Hopkins cannot play. He’s questionable with a knee injury.
It’s no surprise, then, that the Bengals rank 22nd in rushing (98 yards per game), 21st in yards per (3.8), and 28th in sack rate (10.3%). Mixon deserves credit for ranking third in the NFL in rushing (353 yards) despite seeing eight-man boxes on 26.5% of his snaps. Expect a by-committee approach with Samaje Perine and Chris Evans if he cannot go.
Green Bay has struggled to generate a pass rush with Za’Darius Smith on the injured reserve (back surgery). The Packers surrender 4.3 yards per carry, have just 5 tackles for loss all season, and a sack rate (5.1%) that is 24th in the NFL. Outside linebacker Preston Smith (7 pressures on 17 blitzes) has been a relative bright spot.
Advantage: Push
Betting line and game prediction
The midweek line (Bengals +3) seemed more of a reflection of the logos on the helmets than an actual close inspection of the teams involved. Would the Packers really beat the Bengals by 6 points on a neutral field? Green Bay is 3-1 with a negative point differential. That’s a dangerous game to play. The Bengals, through four weeks, have been a more complete team.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Packers 27