What if I told you in my best 30 for 30 impersonation that heading into Week 5 of the fantasy football season, there was still an RB1 that could be had off the waiver wire? Well, that is exactly the case when it comes to Atlanta Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson, who, if available in your league, should be your No. 1 waiver wire priority heading into Week 5.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the fantasy RB1 in Atlanta
It was widely believed that when Mike Davis signed a two-year deal with the Falcons, he would be the featured back in Atlanta. And, in hindsight, he has been.
Davis has recorded 49 rushes for 151 yards on the ground through four games, with 16 receptions from 19 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. He’s averaging 16.3 touches per game and 66.5% of the snaps to start the season. Those numbers alone would indicate he’s the lead back for the Falcons. Yet, in terms of fantasy football, Davis has been uninspiring, to say the least.
With 29.1 fantasy points total, Davis currently stands as a low-end RB3 (RB34 overall), an average of just 7.3 points per game. That equates to just 0.45 fantasy points per touch.
Patterson, meanwhile, has made the most of his touches. So much so that he’s become the Falcons RB to have in fantasy, and it’s not really up for debate.
Through the first three weeks, Patterson produced admirably for fantasy managers. Heading into Week 4, he was the RB16 overall, averaging 11.9 fantasy ppg in half-PPR formats. However, fantasy managers remained hesitant to put Patterson in their starting lineups, and understandably so.
Ever since he was a first-round selection in 2013, fantasy analysts tried relentlessly to make Patterson happen for fantasy. Throughout his career, however, Patterson has become an outstanding kick returner and special-teams player. Unfortunately, outside of leagues with return yards, Patterson brought nothing in regards to fantasy production.
That is, until the 2021 NFL season, and particularly, Week 4.
Patterson erupts against Washington
On Sunday, Patterson made it abundantly clear that he is the Falcons running back you want to have in fantasy. And in several leagues, you still can.
Two weeks ago at this time, Patterson was rostered in just 25% of fantasy leagues, according to FleaFlicker. While that number has nearly tripled to 70%, it remains relatively low for an RB position that fantasy players typically gravitate to whenever there’s an ounce of production or opportunity. For comparison, Davis remains rostered in 92% of leagues despite minimal production.
Of that 70%, several of those fantasy players remained hesitant of inserting Patterson in their starting lineups. After all, how is a 30-year-old, nine-year RB veteran going to now break out for fantasy? I can’t explain how we got here. What I can tell you is — we’re here.
Patterson broke out against Washington on Sunday to the tune of 6 carries for 34 yards and 5 receptions for 82 yards and 3 touchdowns. The breakout performance has Patterson sitting as the RB3 on the season — ahead of prestigious fantasy RBs like Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, and Nick Chubb, just to name a few.
Yes, you read that correctly.
Making the most with limited opportunities
Patterson is doing all of this despite seeing just 36% of the Falcons’ offensive snaps. On the year, he has 27 carries for 119 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. As a receiver, Patterson has 18 receptions on 22 targets for 235 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s had 82 receiving yards in back-to-back games and has increased his yards per reception in each game thus far.
For those keeping score, that gives Patterson 66.4 fantasy points to start the season — more than double that of Davis. He’s done it on 20 fewer touches as well, averaging 1.48 fantasy points per touch through four games. Even if we were to remove Patterson’s Week 4 breakout performance, he still out-produced Davis with 1.05 fantasy points per touch compared to Davis’ 0.41 through three weeks.
Week 5 will be the last chance to put a waiver wire claim in for Patterson
The secret is out. There’s been a lot of talk of waiver wire pickups to this point, but none offer the longevity of weekly appeal that Patterson brings. Therefore, this will be the last opportunity to roster Patterson for the 2021 fantasy season.
While I wouldn’t project Patterson to hold his current RB1 status, there’s little reason to believe he can’t at least be a serviceable low-end RB2/high-end RB3 for the rest of the season. And as a bonus, some platforms have him listed as an RB/WR for added flexibility.
Critics will point to his low snap-count average as the reason why his production is unsustainable. And I agree, to an extent.
Certainly, the TD rate will drop over time. Furthermore, WR Calvin Ridley and TE Kyle Pitts will eventually show fantasy managers why they were held in such high regard prior to the start of the season. Patterson has definitely taken production away from the two to start the season. But I’m sure the opposite will be true when either of them has strong performances.
Still, Patterson’s production to this point cannot be ignored. While the snap counts are low and something to monitor, he’s seen double-digit touches in three straight games (9 in Week 1). That means, when Patterson’s on the field, he’s getting the ball.
Nevertheless, with that snap count, Patterson is due for some dud performances now and again. But if he continues to get the touches he’s been getting, especially in the passing game, Patterson could end the year as a 2021 fantasy breakout star.