Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery has been a workhorse through the first month of the season. With Montgomery set to miss several weeks, how should fantasy football managers approach targeting Damien Williams on the Week 5 waiver wire?
Damien Williams is the No. 1 waiver add
This is the moment fantasy managers have been waiting for. If you’ve been hoarding all of your FAAB or that top waiver priority, this is it. To quote Morpheus from The Matrix Revolutions, “burn it Link.”
Williams is a three-down back
The biggest issue with knowing how to approach backup running backs assuming the starting role is oftentimes they are unknowns. That is not the case with Williams. We’ve seen proof of concept from back when he was with the Kansas City Chiefs. Williams has been an RB1 before — he just needs volume.
Williams won’t be an RB1 in Chicago, but he can be a weekly RB2. He played nearly every snap after Montgomery went down last week. The only reason Khalil Herbert saw the 7 snaps that he did was because Williams took a direct hit to his thigh and had to come out of the game. Fortunately, Williams is dealing with just a bruise, and he will play this week.
Despite being the top pickup, Damien Williams is a temporary solution
Although I’m advocating for needy fantasy managers to do pretty much whatever it takes to get him, understand that Williams’ fantasy value has an expiration date. Montgomery is believed to have avoided serious injury. Therefore, once healthy, he will be back and immediately resume his role as the primary back.
What you spend on Williams on the waiver wire should be based on need
Fantasy managers should approach this week’s waiver period under the assumption that we will get anywhere from 4-5 weeks out of Williams. According to ESPN’s Dan Graziano, that is how long Montgomery’s knee sprain is expected to sideline him. Thus, it’s up to you to decide what that is worth for your fantasy team.
The Bears will play five more games before their bye week. Therefore, I think we can confidently project Montgomery to return in Week 11.
If you have a strong roster and don’t anticipate Williams being able to crack your starting lineup anytime during the next few weeks, then there’s probably not much value in spending your FAAB on Williams. On the other hand, if you have holes in your lineup or in desperate need of a win, Williams can be a difference-maker in the next couple of matchups.
If Montgomery went down for the season, Williams would be worth 50-75% of your FAAB. Think about what you would spend for a fourth or fifth-round pick because that is where Williams would’ve been drafted if Montgomery didn’t exist. Now, adjust that for a month’s level of production and what that is worth to you.
What to do with Williams on the Week 5 waiver wire
An every-week RB2 is extremely valuable, and those types of players don’t just come along often. The projected duration of Montgomery’s injury could be a benefit or a detriment. The fact that we know we’re getting about a quarter of the season will probably increase his cost.
Remember, you can’t take your FAAB or your top waiver priority with you to next season. To answer your question, Andy, yes, if you don’t use it, you lose it. And the earlier you use your FAAB, the more valuable it is. That’s because the players you pick up, in theory, should benefit you for longer periods of time.
If Williams has an immediate spot in your starting lineup, I would spend anywhere from 30-50% of FAAB on him. However, if you’re just trying to add a useful player to your bench to cover injuries or upcoming bye weeks, that amount should be more in the 20-30% range.