Going into the 2021 NFL season, there was plenty of anticipation about the Cincinnati Bengals’ passing game due to the expected return of quarterback Joe Burrow and the fifth overall draft selection of his former LSU teammate, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Second-year wide receiver Tee Higgins also received plenty of hype, leaving slot receiver Tyler Boyd to fight for table scraps of affection from fantasy football enthusiasts.
That was a mistake made by many. Boyd’s ADP of WR37 and 88th overall made him a receiver you could take to fill out your bench. However, he’s a pass catcher with high upside in a heavy passing attack. Let’s take a look at how Boyd should be viewed in Week 4.
Should I start or sit Tyler Boyd in Week 4?
When you’re a kid and have math homework, you get pretty good at doing quick math in your head. 15+17=32. However, you know the teacher wants you to show your work. That’s where I’m at here.
Yes, you’re playing Boyd against Jacksonville. But let’s show the work.
The Bengals have deployed at least three wide receivers on 73% of their offensive plays through the first three weeks, which is well above the league average of 62%. While Chase and Higgins work the outside, Boyd primarily lines up in the slot.
Through three weeks, here are the target totals for Cincinnati’s wide receivers:
- Ja’Marr Chase: 16
- Tee Higgins: 15 (two games played)
- Tyler Boyd: 19
Last week, the Arizona Cardinals — another team that runs a spread offense the majority of the time — played the Jaguars. Their leading receiver in that game wasn’t DeAndre Hopkins or rookie Rondale Moore. It was slot receiver Christian Kirk, who posted 7 receptions for 104 yards.
On top of all that, Higgins is now set to miss his second consecutive game while dealing with a shoulder injury. While Boyd should continue to operate out of the slot, he now has even more potential for a healthy target share in Thursday night’s game.
So, there’s the work. Yes, you’re playing Boyd on Thursday Night Football against the Jaguars.
Tyler Boyd’s fantasy value
Boyd’s team-leading target share hasn’t translated into many fantasy points yet because his yardage totals have been low, and he’s only found the end zone once. He’s logged 141 yards over the first three weeks. He has been asked to work primarily underneath in this offense, seeing only 10.1 yards per reception. That’s not great. In fact, it’s only the 88th-highest mark in the NFL thus far.
Because of how the Cincinnati offense utilizes Boyd (primarily as a shallow route runner), he will have to feast on target volume to return top-end fantasy value. For that to happen, something has to change with Cincinnati’s offense.
The Bengals need to pass more often
Despite lining up in a spread offense a majority of the time, Cincinnati currently ranks ahead of only the New Orleans Saints in fewest pass attempts per game (25). That is a stark difference from last season. In 2020, Burrow attempted a whopping 404 pass attempts through 10 weeks before getting injured. So, carry the zero, and he attempted 40.4 pass attempts per game last season.
This low passing volume simply can’t hold. The Bengals’ offense was created and built with the personnel to put the ball in the air, as evidenced by the draft pick of Chase. As those averages start to regress more to the mean, there will be more targets to go around, and therefore more looks for Boyd.
Fortunately for you, this is a week where Cincinnati’s offense should start to look like what we envisioned during the preseason. Play Boyd in all formats against a weak Jacksonville defense and hope this is the start of a bounce-back for Burrow and Co.