Not only is tonight a divisional matchup, but it also features two of the best records in the league. Monday Night Football closes out Week 4 of the 2021 season, and a newly revived Las Vegas Raiders travel to their AFC West rival Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s dive into the spread in this NFL betting prediction and make the best Raiders vs. Chargers pick for Monday Night Football.
Monday Night Football Pick: Raiders vs. Chargers prediction
These two teams are mirror images of one another. Both field highly efficient offenses with multiple superstars and have elite weapons. These AFC West rivals also boast fierce defenses that can attack opposing offenses in many ways to limit their scoring.
With two quarterbacks that thrive under pressure and a plethora of receivers and running backs that can score from anywhere on the field, will we see another over in prime time? Or will the divisional aspect keep this a tight, low-scoring game making the under the best Monday Night Football pick?
New town, new-look Raiders
Who would have predicted the Raiders would have the best offense three weeks into the regular season? Well, here we are, and Las Vegas leads the league in total offense, averaging 471 yards per game. They are also No. 1 overall in passing offense with 379 yards per game and sixth in scoring offense, averaging 30 points per contest.
Las Vegas has all the weapons to keep these numbers near the top of the league. Quarterback Derek Carr is completing 64.7% of his passes for 1,203 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His favorite weapon, tight end Darren Waller, leads the team with 20 receptions for 224 yards and 1 touchdown.
Defensively, the Raiders are much improved compared to years past. They rank in the middle of the league across the board. However, this is a significant improvement regarding the last three seasons, where they were near the bottom.
In 2020, the Raiders allowed opponents to average 29.9 points per game; in 2021, that number has improved to 24 points per contest. Las Vegas also finished with a -0.7 turnover margin per game last season and has improved that number to +0.3 this season. Although turnovers are highly variable, the ability to lessen giveaways and increase takeaways typically highlights an improvement across the board.
Which team is the best Monday Night Football pick to bring home this betting prediction?
The City of Angels
The Chargers will field their own highly efficient offense to compete with the Raiders’ league-leading attack. Los Angeles leads the league in yards per drive with 45.5 and is second-best at creating points on offensive possessions at 50% on the season. The majority of this is thanks to the elite quarterback play of Justin Herbert.
Whereas the Raiders own the best passing offense in the league, the Chargers are right behind at No. 3 overall. Los Angeles is averaging 307 yards through the air per game and 87 on the ground. The intriguing number for the Chargers is their scoring offense.
With a top-three passing offense and the ability to score on 50% of offensive possessions, the Chargers somehow rank 20th in the league at points per game. They average 22.3 points per game compared to the Raiders’ sixth-best scoring offense at 30 points per contest. Ultimately, this comes down to the Chargers’ ability to move the ball down the field yet fail to score TDs.
Los Angeles is only scoring touchdowns 46.6% of the time they enter the red zone. That is the sixth-worst in the league this season and a mark that is 10.5% worse than last season. This may be temporary, as they are second-best in the NFL with 5.0 scoring attempts in the red zone per game. These stats show that the Chargers are extremely efficient between the 20s but falter significantly to punch it in.
Will this continue to haunt them in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction against their division rival?
Raiders vs. Chargers prediction and pick
With two offenses that can put points on the board in a flurry if given the opportunity and two defenses that have performed well so far this season, I’m expecting this game to come down to offensive efficiency and possibly down to who has the ball last.
The most significant factor offensively between these two teams comes down to touchdown conversion rate. Both teams have top-10 offenses regarding getting the ball into the red zone. The difference lies with the Raiders punching it in 54% of the time while the Chargers can only achieve a TD 47% of the time.
These teams split the season series last year, with both winning on the road. On paper, it would seem the Chargers are the significantly better team. Divisional matchups are typically close and gruesome battles where even league-worst teams find a way to compete with league-leading clubs.
Two of the best offenses in the league face off in a prime-time matchup where anything goes. Add in the divisional-rival aspect plus each team’s ability to convert drives into touchdowns. I’m taking the Raiders +3 with this Monday Night Football prediction.