Saquon Barkley has had consecutive seasons derailed by injuries. In Week 2 of last season, he tore his ACL against the Bears. The Giants have reacclimated Barkley slowly, held him out of preseason action, and limited his participation during training camp. New York has not announced if he will play against the Denver Broncos in Week 1. Barkley’s catastrophic knee injury clouds his 2021 fantasy football outlook, but should managers draft him this season?
Saquon Barkley’s knee injury is the elephant in the room
Barkley underwent successful knee surgery last October. The great news is that he had almost an entire year to recover from the injury. He returned to practice in mid-August and recently began taking part in 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Giants are bringing him along slowly.
It’s rare to use high draft capital on running backs in today’s NFL
The Giants drafted Barkley No. 2 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. This decision was met with criticism by many NFL analysts. Over the last decade, the idea of drafting a running back in the first round went the way of the dinosaurs. Many teams adapted and began selecting running backs in the second or third round. This best practice paid dividends for teams like the Saints (Alvin Kamara), Packers (Aaron Jones), and Titans (Derrick Henry).
Kamara was selected in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft. He’s averaged 18 opportunities and 22 PPR fantasy points per game in 60 active games.
Another great example was Jones, who was selected in the fifth round of ’17. Over the last two seasons, he’s finished as an RB2+ in 76% of his 30 active games.
Then, there’s King Henry. He was selected in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft. Henry rushed for 2,000+ yards last season. He’s also finished as an RB1 in 58% of his games since 2019.
Barkley finished as an RB2 or better in 81% of his 31 career games, including 18 RB1 performances. Barkley has averaged 22.6 opportunities, 115 total yards, and 21 PPR fantasy points per game. His statistical production this season will dictate whether the Giants offer Barkley an extension.
Opportunity share matters
In the modern NFL, a bell-cow back is a rare commodity. The only other running backs who have averaged more opportunities per game than Barkley since 2018 are Ezekiel Elliott (23.7) and Christian McCaffrey (24.3). Based on our projections, this trend will continue in 2021. Barkley’s floor is around 340 touches.
Barkley became the first player in Giants history to rush for 1,000 or more yards in each of his first two seasons. Were you aware that Barkley, McCaffrey, and Kamara are the only NFL players who exceeded 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards from 2018 to 2019?
The similarities continue when you analyze Barkley’s PPR fantasy points per game since entering the NFL. McCaffrey (27.1) and Kamara (22.3) are the only running backs who have played 30+ games since 2018 with a higher per-game average than Barkley.
It is also important not to underestimate the Giants’ offensive line this season.
The Giants’ offensive line crisis is greatly exaggerated
New York was a fairly strong run-blocking unit last season. However, the Giants’ offensive line did struggle with pass blocking.
It’s important to analyze their opponents. In the first half of the season, the Giants faced defenses who consistently pressured the quarterback. This included four games against division rivals in the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team. The Giants’ schedule lightened up the second half of the year with favorable matchups against teams like the Bengals, Seahawks, and Cowboys.
Many quickly point out that the Giants did not address the offensive line in this year’s draft. Yet, New York already addressed the line in last year’s draft. In 2020, rookies Andrew Thomas, Matt Peart, and Shane Lemieux all played significant snaps. The Giants also had a first-time center in Nick Gates. The offensive line was trying to gel as a unit and learn a new scheme. That’s challenging even for veteran NFL players. This unit is likely to be even better in 2021.
The G-Men like to run a high number of play-action passes. The return of a legitimate threat like Barkley in the backfield and a well-oiled OL will allow quarterback Daniel Jones and Co. to run it efficiently.
The additional receiving weapons will benefit Saquon Barkley
Giants head coach Joe Judge and his coaching staff proactively added receiving weapons for Jones. These weapons include wide receiver Kenny Golladay in free agency and Swiss army knife Kadarius Toney in the draft. Both will help keep defenses honest and not stack the box.
Should you draft Saquon Barkley in 2021?
Yes! I’ll reiterate that it’s not a bad thing that the Giants are conservative with Barkley. He is only 24 years old and has been very productive in the league.
Barkley’s current ADP
According to Fleaflicker, Barkley is the RB9 with an ADP of 10. In pay-to-play formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, Barkley is the RB8 with the same ADP.
The importance of a contingency plan
My preference is to draft Barkley at the top of the second round. I’ve seen him fall that far. I’m comfortable taking the plunge, but think about your contingency plan if things go south.
One option is to add some additional running backs to your roster if the Giants do indeed bring Barkley along slowly. Jamaal Williams and Kenyan Drake are solid RB3s with upside. Another option is to simply draft Devontae Booker at the tail end of your draft. He’d be the primary beneficiary if Barkley missed any games.