Two of the most anticipated rookies of the 2021 NFL Draft class coincidentally came from the same college, adding another layer of debate on which player fantasy football managers should draft between Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle and Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith. With both projecting to be heavily involved in their offenses from Day 1, who should fantasy football managers draft at WR — Waddle or Smith?
Why you should draft Jaylen Waddle in 2021 fantasy football leagues
Outside of maybe Tyreek Hill, there might not be a more explosive receiver in the open field than Dolphins rookie Jaylen Waddle. I will not put him on that same pedestal as there is only one Tyreek Hill. However, Waddle is right there in the discussion for the next best.
In his three seasons (34 games) with the Crimson Tide, while surrounded by multiple first-round NFL Draft picks at receiver, Waddle corralled 106 passes for 1,999 yards and 17 touchdowns. As a returner, he racked up 947 yards on 47 kicks with 3 touchdowns.
He was the SEC Freshman of the Year, first-team All-SEC as a return specialist (2019), and SEC Special Teams Player of the Year (2019). He was in the conversation for the Heisman heading into the 2020 season, which unfortunately ended prematurely due to an ankle injury.
Waddle is a bona fide elite wide receiver at the next level and should deliver for fantasy managers. Pairing Waddle with his former college QB Tua Tagovailoa only helps early-season chemistry and communication. The built-in rapport takes the need for reps to get on the same page out of the equation.
Although the Dolphins signed Will Fuller and have DeVante Parker, Waddle has every opportunity to lead the Dolphins in targets and be the fantasy WR1. Every Waddle target has a chance to be a house call.
The case for Jaylen Waddle over DeVonta Smith
You will never see me say a disparaging word against Smith. He has done nothing but prove people wrong his entire career. Nonetheless, I’m not sure Smith would have had his award-winning season if Waddle played all year.
When on the clock, Miami could have chosen either WR on draft day, but they decided to pair Waddle with Tua — that should speak volumes about his offensive role. I have repeatedly said that Tua will be better in 2021. There is a realistic path where he throws for 4,200-4,400 yards with 27-30 touchdowns in 2021.
At the center of this production will be Waddle. I have the rookie WR projected to see over 100 targets this season. With this volume, his after-the-catch ability, and separation skills, Waddle could be the breakout WR in fantasy football this season.
Why you should draft DeVonta Smith in 2021 fantasy football leagues
It’s almost hard to put into context what Smith was able to pull off at Alabama.
In 2019, while playing alongside Jerry Jeudy (first-round pick), Henry Ruggs (first-round pick), and Waddle (first-round pick), Smith had 1,256 yards on 68 receptions for 14 touchdowns. Smith was first in yards, second in targets, first in touchdowns, and his 18.5 yards per reception were second only to Ruggs at 18.7 (even though he had 28 more receptions).
Then, in an encore performance in 2020, he topped it. Playing in all 13 games, Smith caught 117 passes for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. He had nine games with over 130 receiving yards and three of 200-plus. Smith holds the SEC and Alabama career record for receiving touchdowns (46) and receiving yards (3,965).
Smith was the first-ever WR to win the Associated Press Player of the Year in 2020. He also took home the Player of the Year by CBS Sports, Maxwell Football Club, Sporting News, and the Walter Camp Football Foundation.
In addition, Smith was the recipient of the Biletnikoff Award and Paul Hornung Award. Most notably, Smith became the first WR since Desmond Howard at Michigan to win the Heisman Trophy. He led the nation in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and he converted a first down or a touchdown on 85 of his receptions.
There is arguably no better playmaker than Smith. On a Philadelphia Eagles offense that desperately needed a WR1 on their roster, Smith steps in with little competition for the role and could lead all rookies in targets this season. I have been adamant about Jalen Hurts improving as a passer in 2021, with Smith as his go-to receiver.
In fantasy football, where volume is king for WRs, Smith has WR2 upside in 2021.
The case for DeVonta Smith over Jaylen Waddle
For as good as we all know Waddle is, there is no denying he is in a jam-packed offense. Not only is he competing with Parker and Fuller, but Mike Gesicki will command a noticeable target share too. For Waddle to live up to the hype, Parker and/or Fuller might need to miss some time. Plus, this Dolphins team should be winning games and strong on defense, limiting the need to air the ball out consistently in negative game scripts.
On the other hand, Smith is virtually uncontested for targets and on a team playing from behind fairly often. While I believe Jalen Reagor will have positive regression compared to his expectations last year, he is nowhere near the level of either Fuller or Parker, both of which have been WR1s in their careers.
Where Waddle could hit 100 targets, Smith has the chance to see 120 in his rookie season. He is also a better route runner than Waddle by far. Even in limited action this preseason, he has shown that corners cannot keep up with him at the line and out of breaks.
With more leagues using full PPR scoring, the increased volume is enough to push Smith over the top of his former teammate.
Which WR should you draft in fantasy football between Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith?
There isn’t a wrong choice between these two WRs for fantasy football. Even in my projections, they are within five points of each other.
A lot comes down to which QB you believe will improve more in their second year between Tua and Hurts. Furthermore, given recent rumors and lack of a complete denial from head coach Brian Flores, the Dolphins could be in trade talks for Deshaun Watson, so this must be considered as well.
Based on ADP, Smith is coming off the boards as the WR28 (70.6 ADP) with Waddle the WR36 (83.8). Going solely on their draft capital, Waddle would get the slight edge in value. Both WRs are in the WR3 range for me, with very little separating the two.