What is Khalil Herbert’s fantasy football outlook and ADP heading into 2021? He has enjoyed a productive training camp and preseason while fighting for a defined role in the Chicago Bears’ backfield. The rookie is vying for offensive snaps and opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) behind starting running back David Montgomery.
Khalil Herbert’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Bears selected Herbert with the 217th overall pick in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He was drafted to back up Montgomery, who is coming off of a career season.
Montgomery finished 2020 with 315 opportunities, 1,508 total yards, and 10 total touchdowns. However, he struggled behind the Bears’ hodgepodge offensive line. Montgomery only averaged 12.5 PPR fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-9. The 23-year-old RB helped you win your league from Weeks 12-17 when Chicago’s offensive line had a plethora of favorable matchups. During that span, Montgomery averaged 25.7 fantasy points per game.
Herbert’s competition for touches
I can almost hear you thinking that Montgomery only prospered because Tarik Cohen was out. Cohen sustained a torn ACL in Week 3 against the Falcons last season. The recovery process has been slow, as Cohen didn’t participate in June’s minicamp. He is unlikely to command a large opportunity share and this benefits Herbert.
And now, you’re thinking about Damien Williams. After opting out last year, the former Kansas City Chiefs running back signed a one-year contract with the Bears. He has played in 85 career games with the Dolphins and Chiefs over six seasons. Williams has rushed for 1,231 yards and 12 touchdowns on 294 rushing attempts. Additionally, he caught 138 passes for 1,106 yards and 10 scores.
Many expected Williams to have a stranglehold on the No. 2 role in Chicago’s backfield. The reality is that Herbert looks better. He could push Williams for reps as we head toward the regular season. Still, neither back is a threat to Montgomery’s workload in 2021. Yet, the No. 2 option in the backfield would be in a prime position to inherit Montgomery’s workload if he missed time.
Herbert is one of the most underrated running backs from this year’s draft class. He fell to the sixth round, but many NFL teams had early-round grades on him.
Fantasy projection
It’s important to briefly examine Herbert’s past before discussing his projection for 2021. He played four seasons at Kansas from 2016 to 2019 before finishing his collegiate career at Virginia Tech in 2020.
In 46 career games, Herbert rushed for 2,918 yards and 22 touchdowns on 475 attempts and had 34 receptions for 297 yards and another score.
Last season, Herbert played in 11 games with the Hokies. He rushed for a career-high 1,183 yards and 8 touchdowns on 155 attempts. Herbert also recorded 10 receptions for 179 yards and 1 touchdown.
From a film perspective, Herbert has solid balance, play speed, and identifies running lanes well. He does have an opportunity to improve his pass blocking and to be more physical. Furthermore, Herbert doesn’t stockpile broken tackles. Overall, he has the vision, speed, and play strength to become a valuable contributor at the NFL level.
It is in the realm of possibility that Herbert beats out Williams for the backup role. He projects for around 65 opportunities, 375 total yards, and 3 touchdowns in 2021. Herbert’s fantasy outlook and ceiling would be even higher with rookie Justin Fields under center instead of Andy Dalton.
Khalil Herbert’s ADP
Herbert is undrafted, according to Fleaflicker. He has an ADP of 292.54 overall in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship.
Should you draft Herbert in 2021?
Absolutely! Herbert is best selected near the tail end of your fantasy draft as a potential lottery ticket. He’d be heavily involved in the Bears’ backfield if Montgomery were to miss significant time due to an injury.