Sun Tzu mentioned, “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” This quote is a perfect parallel to the fantasy football outlook for quarterback Tyrod Taylor with the Texans this season. After reporting to Texans training camp, will Deshaun Watson be the starting quarterback in Houston in Week 1? Is everyone overlooking Taylor at his current ADP?
Tyrod Taylor’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Watson’s trade demands and the legal situation has fantasy enthusiasts and Houston’s front office feeling queasy heading into the regular season. This opens the door for Taylor to revive his NFL career after stints with the Bills, Browns, Ravens, and Chargers.
Taylor was solid in Week 1 for the Chargers last season. He was the starter and completed 16 of 30 passes for 208 yards against the Bengals. Taylor also had 6 rushes for 7 yards. He was slated to start in Week 2 before a Chargers’ team doctor accidentally punctured his lung before kickoff. The doctor was trying to administer a pain-killing injection to Taylor’s cracked ribs.
As a result, Justin Herbert started the game and never looked back. He finished the season as the NFL Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Taylor has had fantasy success in the past with the Bills. He started 14+ games in three consecutive seasons in Buffalo from 2015 to 2017. Over this time frame, Taylor averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game as a passer and runner. It is worth mentioning that he has never thrown for 3,035+ yards in a season.
The Texans also drafted Davis Mills in the third round of this year’s draft. Taylor would have to completely faceplant for the rookie to make starts in 2021. Houston hired David Culley to be the new head coach, who decided to keep Tim Kelly on as the offensive coordinator.
Houston averaged 34.1 pass attempts (23rd) and 21.5 (31st) rushing attempts per game last season. This trend is likely to continue in 2021. The Texans don’t have many viable offensive weapons.
A suboptimal supporting cast in Houston
I don’t expect prolific numbers from Taylor this season. He doesn’t throw interceptions, but his touchdown percentage is only 4%.
Taylor will likely lean heavily on wide receiver Brandin Cooks. The veteran receiver has caught passes from Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Jared Goff, and Watson throughout his career and has thrived. Cooks enters this season as one of five active receivers since 2015 to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in at least five seasons.
Taylor will likely pepper Cooks with targets, considering the other receivers on the roster are Nico Collins, Anthony Miller, Chris Conley, and Keke Coutee. According to our projections, Collins will be the second-most-targeted receiver in Houston. He only appeared in 29 games at Michigan with 22 starts from 2017 to 2019. Collins had 78 receptions for 1,388 receiving yards with 13 touchdowns in his career.
Houston’s running game leaves much to be desired
The Texans are coming off one of their worst seasons in franchise history in regards to running the football. The Texans only averaged 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game (30th). However, this offseason, Houston did attempt to stabilize the running game. David Johnson, Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead are now the Texans’ top running backs.
The Texans enter this season with nine new offensive linemen. Houston has adequate depth to handle the ups and downs of an NFL season, projecting to have a middle-of-the-pack offensive line. This is a concern because Taylor isn’t as elusive as Watson — he has succumbed to about 3 sacks/game in the contests he has been the starter.
Houston will be a pass-heavy offense in 2021. They will also likely be chasing in a lot of games, with their defense unlikely to be significantly improved this season.
Fantasy projection
With the Texans’ offense expected to pass more, Taylor projects for around 390 attempts, 4,300 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He also projects for around 50 rushing attempts, 230 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns.
Tyrod Taylor’s ADP
Taylor is readily available in the later rounds of most leagues according to Fleaflicker. In pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, he has an ADP of 261.17 as the QB69 overall. In superflex formats on Sleeper, Taylor has an ADP of 179.9.
Should you draft Taylor in 2021?
I wouldn’t recommend drafting Taylor outside of the deepest 2QB or superflex formats. He’s a solid QB2 and is best used as a fantasy bye week replacement in 2021.