The Carolina Panthers selected Terrace Marshall Jr. with the 59th overall pick in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Given the recent success of former LSU receivers Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, many are optimistic about Marshall’s fantasy football outlook. Should you target Marshall Jr. at his ADP?
Terrace Marshall Jr.’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The perception is that Marshall’s landing spot is suboptimal. The reality is that Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel ranked inside the top 30 in fantasy points per game at the receiver position.
Marshall can immediately fill the void left by Samuel — the Panthers have 200 vacated targets. Carolina also signed David Moore during free agency. It would be shocking if Marshall doesn’t start from Day 1 in three-WR sets.
Last season, Anderson and D.J. Moore combined for a 50% target share. Samuel accounted for a 19.3% target share while running back Christian McCaffrey saw 16% when he was active. Since 2018, McCaffrey’s averaged 8.2 targets per game. History could repeat itself in 2021, which would lower Marshall’s ceiling.
Sam Darnold is in a great position to rehabilitate his career with the Panthers. The former No. 3 overall pick provides the staff a quarterback with the arm strength to take more risks downfield. Darnold has potential, but it’s in the realm of possibility that he doesn’t play as well as Teddy Bridgewater did last season.
The harsh reality is that Marshall is unlikely to see a high number of targets this season. This could change if Anderson or D.J. Moore misses significant time due to an injury.
The good news is that Marshall had a productive collegiate career at LSU without being featured. That could translate well to the NFL considering how offensive coordinator Joe Brady can use him.
Marshall can also be used in various ways as a versatile offensive weapon. He can threaten defenses vertically, wreak havoc in the slot, and also catch passes underneath.
Fantasy projection
Before diving into Marshall’s projection, let’s briefly examine his past. Over the past two seasons, Marshall caught 94 of 134 targets for 1,402 receiving yards in LSU’s offense and played 19 games. Despite missing six games over his final two seasons, Marshall was dominant in the red zone, scoring 23 touchdowns.
It’s worth mentioning that he elected to opt-out of the Tigers’ last three games to focus on 2021 NFL Draft preparation.
Marshall is only scratching the surface of what’s he capable of. This is good for Marshall’s dynasty value, but in redraft, he projects for around 80 targets, 50 receptions, 600 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns.
Terrace Marshall Jr.’s ADP
Marshall is readily available in the middle of the eighth round of fantasy drafts when reviewing redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Marshall has an ADP of 84.33 as the WR33 overall.
Meanwhile, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 118.5. Marshall’s ADP should remain stable for the rest of the summer.
Should you draft Marshall Jr. in 2021?
Absolutely. Marshall can be the WR5 or WR6 on your fantasy football team. He is a player to stash on the bench who could pay off later in the season.