If you are looking for week-in and week-out consistency at the highest level, Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins has one of the most secure fantasy football outlooks you could wish for in 2021. After posting phenomenal numbers despite changing teams last season, how should fantasy managers view Hopkins for the 2021 season, and should you draft him at his current ADP?
DeAndre Hopkins’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Do you remember this time last season when everyone was saying that Hopkins would struggle? Many pointed out the expected drop in market share, which caused people to fade him and, in turn, pushed his ADP down into the mid-to-late second round. How did that turn out?
Hopkins is just another example of one of the simplest rules in fantasy football — don’t fade great players.
All Hopkins did was record 115 receptions on 160 targets for 1,407 yards with 6 touchdowns. He saw a 29.4% target share and accounted for 43% of the WR targets and 33.6% of the team’s intended air yards (1,373). He tied for second in the NFL in catches and 100-yard games (7) while ranking third in the NFL in receiving yards.
How about this for consistency — Did you know that Hopkins has seen 150+ targets in six straight seasons and has finished as a top-five receiver in five of them? So why should we expect anything different in 2021?
Hopkins can be even better in 2021
If anything, there’s room for improvement. Kyler Murray suffered a shoulder injury in Week 11, and Hopkins only scored 6 touchdowns. I bring up the TDs because Hopkins was 25th in touchdown percentage (3.75%) amongst the 35 receivers with 100 or more targets. Yes, I am probably nitpicking because I don’t think anyone was upset with a guy who recorded WR1 games in 50% of his weeks while averaging 18.2 points per game.
There are some concerns that the additions of A.J. Green and Rondale Moore will eat into Hopkins’ role. Personally, I don’t see that as it’s a competition between them and Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella for the remaining 67-70% of the targets that are not directed towards Hopkins.
Hopkins is as safe as it gets and is on an explosive offense looking to take the next step forward. Draft Hopkins with confidence in 2021. His floor is likely as stable as any player in the NFL.
Fantasy projection
For as much as we think of the Cardinals as this air-raid offense that lives and dies by the pass, that’s not entirely the case. The Cardinals threw the ball only 56% of the time, which was below the 58% league average. But their pace jumped from 11th-quickest to No. 2, running a play every 25.06 seconds, which led to the fourth-highest number of plays ran overall (1,083).
While the addition of James Conner helps to bolster the running game, I believe Green and Moore are the more impactful and telling moves about how the Cardinals will be in 2021. Combining the offseason moves and the need to keep up in a loaded NFC West, it’s more likely we see the Cardinals jump in passing volume to the 60% range.
Hopkins’ role is carved into stone. He is the dominant alpha who will see approximately 10 targets a game or more. Hopkins had 10+ targets in nine games alone last season. He is also reliable, having missed only two games over his eight-year career.
I think the majority of these extra targets will end up divided amongst the other receivers, but we could see Hopkins cross the 30% market share threshold and even approach the 31-35% he was accustomed to in Houston.
Current projections have Hopkins slated for around 165 targets with 115-118 receptions for 1,450-1,480 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2021.
DeAndre Hopkins’ ADP
According to Sleeper, Hopkins is currently the WR4 with an ADP of 15.8 in half PPR formats. In superflex leagues, where quarterbacks have increased value, he has a 25.6 ADP. Similarly, on Fleaflicker, Hopkins is the WR4 with a 17.5 ADP. On the high-stakes National Fantasy Championship, he is the WR4 with an ADP of 17.07.
Should you draft Hopkins for fantasy in 2021?
Hopkins brings WR1 upside every single week and is as safe as it gets. The best thing about him is his floor. With volume being such a crucial element to the production, few receivers will see the workload Hopkins should command in 2021. If you are in the second round and are looking for a receiver, I would not let Hopkins pass you by on draft day.