It’s no secret that the tight end position in fantasy football is the hardest one to find consistent production from throughout the season. Las Vegas Raiders TE Darren Waller, however, is a top-tier fantasy option who could be the TE1 in 2021. What is Waller’s fantasy outlook for 2021, and is he worth drafting at his second-round ADP?
Darren Waller’s fantasy outlook for 2021
In 2020, Waller finished 34.2 points behind Chiefs TE Travis Kelce for the TE1 overall spot in PPR formats. The difference between Waller and the TE3 (Robert Tonyan and Logan Thomas), however, was 102 points.
That should give you a clear idea of what the vast difference is amongst top-tier tight ends in fantasy football when compared to the rest of the field. Assuming George Kittle stays healthy for the 49ers, it really is those three and then everybody else.
In 12 of 16 games, Waller was a top-six fantasy tight end, including four finishes as the TE1. His 17.4 fantasy points per game trailed only Kelce and were nearly 6.5 points better on average than Tonyan and Thomas. It was a career season for Waller, as he totaled 107 receptions on 145 targets for 1,196 yards and 9 touchdowns.
Waller would’ve been a top-six WR
To understand how good Waller was for fantasy, let’s look at it from the perspective if he had the WR label. After all, he is QB Derek Carr’s No. 1 target in the Raiders’ offense. Waller’s 278.6 points on the year would’ve been good enough to be the WR6, ahead of Justin Jefferson and DK Metcalf, respectively. This is something to factor in ahead of 2021 fantasy drafts.
Fantasy projection
Last season, Waller averaged 9.1 targets per game, and in the year prior, he saw an average of 7.3. He’s Carr’s most dependable option, and that will continue on into the 2021 season.
WR Nelson Agholor took 82 targets with him to New England. As the deep threats on the team, I’d expect John Brown and Henry Ruggs to see the majority of these vacated targets for fantasy purposes. But it wouldn’t be out of surprise if Waller gets an added chunk thrown his way as well. Either way, Waller projects to have a third-straight dominant season atop the Raiders’ receiving weapons.
Current projections for Waller in 2021 are about 105 receptions, 135 targets, 1,150 receiving yards, and 9-10 touchdowns. Those types of numbers would give him similar finishes as he did a year ago.
Darren Waller’s ADP
According to Fleaflicker, Waller’s current ADP is 25.5 as the TE3 in PPR formats. In superflex leagues, where quarterbacks have an increased value, his ADP is 27.8. On Fantasy Football Calculator, Waller is the TE2 with an ADP of 22.48 overall.
Should you draft Waller in 2021?
It’d be a lot cooler if you did. Waller is one of the most consistent players in fantasy, and because he plays tight end, it makes him all the more valuable.
Several fantasy players are reluctant to draft a tight end with a high selection, opting to take top-tier running backs and wide receivers instead. Those positions are generally the most productive and are the core of several fantasy teams. Taking a tight end early means missing out on a high-end RB or WR with top-12 potential.
While that may be true, taking someone like Waller (or Kelce, for that matter) kills two birds with one stone. You see, not only are you getting a top-tier player at the most scarce position in fantasy football, but you’re also getting a player that produces like a WR1. Thus, it makes perfect sense to grab Waller in the back end of Round 2 to be your every-week starter while the rest of your league scrounges the waiver wire and free agency to fill the TE position on a weekly basis.