WR John Brown missed nearly half the season in 2020, but in 2019, he was a 1,000-yard receiver with the Buffalo Bills. Now with the Las Vegas Raiders, what does Brown’s fantasy football outlook look like for 2021, and what is his ADP?
John Brown’s fantasy outlook for 2021
When healthy, Brown has been a formidable player for fantasy. In 2019, he totaled 72 receptions, 1,060 yards, and 6 touchdowns in 15 games. He finished as the WR20 for fantasy in PPR formats at an average of 14.7 points per game. Moreover, Brown failed to record double-digit points in just two games — proving himself to be a reliable starter on a week-to-week basis.
Even last season, despite the arrival of Stefon Diggs, Brown averaged 10.8 ppg and was a viable option in most games played.
The concern for Brown has been staying on the field. He’s missed 14 games over the last four seasons — half of those coming from 2020 as he battled with a high ankle sprain. Furthermore, Brown enters the year at age 31, which doesn’t exactly bode confidence in his ability to last a full season — an even lengthier one at that.
Nevertheless, following his release from the Bills, Brown now joins another offense that is favorable for fantasy football. They’re also missing a key contributor from a year ago. Gone is Nelson Agholor and his 82 targets as he now resides in New England. Agholor was second in targets and receiving yards — albeit distant second — on the Raiders’ offense in 2020. He finished the year with 48 receptions, 896 yards, and 8 touchdowns.
Agholor wound up becoming a WR3 for fantasy after being relatively undrafted in the majority of fantasy football drafts. The hope for Brown is that he can have a similar impact.
Fantasy projection
There’s no question who the No. 1 receiving option in Las Vegas is. It’s TE Darren Waller, and it’s not relatively close. Last season, Waller totaled 107 receptions off of 145 targets, 1,196 yards, and 9 touchdowns. He saw 63 more targets and 300 more yards than the next Raiders’ player (Agholor). He also nearly doubled the next best player in receptions (Hunter Renfrow – 56). In 2019, Waller was even more dominant next to his teammates.
So, while we know who the No. 1 option in the Raiders’ offense is, who is the No. 1 receiver?
That remains to be seen, but Brown absolutely has the chance to be the guy. Behind Waller, though, it gets crowded with Vegas wide receivers. As of now, Brown projects for 75-80 targets, 45-50 receptions, 700 yards, and 4-5 touchdowns. Additionally, if he stays healthy, Brown could fill the role that Agholor had a year ago.
John Brown’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Brown’s ADP in half PPR formats 215.2 overall. On National Fantasy Championship (NFC), Brown is being drafted at 210.9. He is going slightly higher on Fleaflicker, where his ADP is 190.5.
Should you draft Brown in 2021?
Given where Brown is going in drafts, he’s a steal. While I personally believe that Henry Ruggs will take a step up in 2021 and be the No. 1 WR he was drafted to be, it’s worth a flier to see what Brown has left.
Ruggs has the upside that Brown clearly lacks, but he and fellow second-year receiver Bryan Edwards remain unproven. They both had uninspiring rookie seasons. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Renfrow and newly-signed WR Willie Snead have proved to be complementary pieces in the offense. (Although Snead did finish with the most receptions on the Ravens’ offense in 2018 when he and Brown were together in Baltimore.)
Therefore, it’s possible for Brown to emerge as the Raiders’ WR1 and the second-best passing option for QB Derek Carr. If Brown is able to form a consistent level of play that he did in 2019 — and stay healthy — he’ll come out as one of the best values in fantasy football for 2021.