After being the RB1 for the Arizona Cardinals, Kenyan Drake finds himself in a backup role with the Las Vegas Raiders. So what does that do for Drake’s fantasy football outlook for 2021, and is he worth targeting at his ADP?
Kenyan Drake’s fantasy outlook for 2021
As mentioned, Drake was the starting RB for the Cardinals a year ago. As a result, his ADP entering the 2020 season was 14.8 and the RB12 overall. He went in the back half of first rounds in several fantasy drafts. Given how Drake finished the 2019 season, it made all the sense in the world.
To put it simply, Drake was a league winner in 2019. In Weeks 15 and 16 (the two most important in fantasy football), Drake totaled 73 PPR fantasy points and was the RB2 behind only Saquon Barkley. Unfortunately, Drake could not match his end-of-season fire into the 2020 season despite a heavy workload.
He finished the year as the RB16 with an average of 12.8 fantasy points per game. As the lead back, Drake totaled 239 carries for 955 yards and 10 touchdowns — all career-high totals. He also added 25 receptions for 137 yards. Per touch, Drake averaged 0.73 fantasy points. His Cardinals teammate, Chase Edmonds, however, greatly outperformed him on a per-touch basis.
Edmonds finished the year with 448 rushing yards on 97 carries and a score. Used more heavily in the passing game, Edmonds also had 53 receptions for 402 yards and 4 touchdowns. He was the RB25 in PPR formats, averaging 1.12 fantasy ppg — over 50% better than Drake.
Drake’s opportunities will decline in Vegas
At the end of the day, Drake was fine for fantasy, but nowhere near the level of the end of 2019 or what fantasy managers were expecting. Now, he finds himself as the No. 2 option in a different offense. The opportunities are certainly to subside as the secondary option behind Josh Jacobs.
If Drake maintains his fantasy average from a year ago, his value in fantasy football will be minimal. However, Drake could have standalone value if he can find a similar spark to the end of 2019. In that case, he could be viewed as an RB3/flex option throughout the season.
Fantasy projection
With Drake now in Vegas, there’s been some speculation as to who the RB1 in Vegas actually is. While this could turn into a 1A/1B situation, I’d speculate that it’s still Jacobs’ job, and it’s not relatively close. Despite a lack of targets last year with Arizona, I believe Drake will receive the primary bulk of the third-down work while Jacobs will be the early-down back.
Of course, with the Raiders’ issues at offensive line, Drake could see more work as a receiver if the team cannot move the ball. For whatever reason, head coach Jon Gruden has sparingly used Jacobs as a receiver out of the backfield. While he did see 45 targets last season, I’d assume several of those will now go to Drake. With Jalen Richard out indefinitely with a foot injury, Drake is the likely beneficiary of the vacated fantasy targets as well.
Current projections for Drake in 2021 are at about 125 carries, 550 rushing yards, and 4 touchdowns. Additionally, he projects for 35 receptions on 45 targets, 200 receiving yards, and another TD.
Kenyan Drake’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Drake’s current ADP is 106.7 in half PPR formats. On Fleaflicker, Drake is being selected with a fractionally higher ADP (104.3) but significantly falls to RB40. Similarly, Drake has an ADP of 106.79 on the National Fantasy Championship platform.
Should you draft Drake in 2021?
As a fourth or fifth option, I don’t mind drafting Drake, but it will depend on the format and where we are in the draft. For instance, I wouldn’t take him at his ADP on Sleeper, but I’d be more than happy to take him on Underdog Fantasy where he is going.
Nevertheless, with limited upside, Drake is not someone I’m heavily targeting in the later rounds. On Sleeper, there are players with higher upside, such as Trey Sermon (92.9), Jalen Hurts (94.8), and Laviska Shenault (96.7), going behind Drake that are more appealing for fantasy football. Therefore, only at a value in PPR and best ball formats am I considering drafting Drake.