Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr was a top-12 QB in fantasy football in four of the last five games of the 2020 season, but what does that mean for 2021? What is Carr’s fantasy outlook for the upcoming season, and is he a value at his ADP?
Derek Carr’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Carr finished just outside QB1 territory (top 12) as the QB13 overall in fantasy football last season. A respectable finish, Carr’s production rests primarily on his end-of-season performance. In the Raiders’ final five regular-season games, Carr was a fantasy QB1 in four of them, including a QB1 overall finish in Week 13 (32.74 fantasy points). Leading up to Week 13, Carr was the QB20 overall, with three finishes inside the top 12.
While there is some positive buzz surrounding Carr for 2021, his production from Weeks 1-12 more align with what he’s been throughout his career. Since entering the NFL in 2014, Carr has been a QB1 in fantasy just once (2016 – QB10). For most of his career, he’s been a back-end QB2 — where he was last year before the strong finish.
Carr totaled the year with 348 completions, 4,103 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. The yards thrown were a career-high for Carr. That, and his increased involvement in the run game, has several in the fantasy community optimistic about Carr’s fantasy outlook in 2021.
Receiving options are up
There’s no question that TE Darren Waller is Carr’s No. 1 target in the Raiders’ offense. After all, he’s a top-three tight end for fantasy, who caught 107 receptions for nearly 1,200 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns a year ago. He’s the only player who could challenge the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce for best tight end in fantasy football.
Who Carr’s No. 2 passing option will be is a bit murkier. Nevertheless, Carr’s options look better than they did a year ago. Out are Nelson Agholor and Tyrell Williams; in are John Brown and Willie Snead. Agholor enjoyed a nice breakout season last year with Williams out, but the combo of Brown and Snead is an upgrade for Carr.
Furthermore, Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards enter their second seasons as Raiders wide receivers. Both were relatively quiet in their rookie year but should take a step up in 2021 with another year to understand the offense. It seems several have forgotten that Ruggs was the WR1 in the 2020 NFL Draft. Although he probably shouldn’t have been, there was never any doubt of him being a first-round talent. A breakout season for Ruggs should not come as a surprise.
Fantasy projection
One of the big question marks for Carr and his fantasy outlook for 2021 is the Raiders’ offensive line. Las Vegas parted ways with Rodney Hudson, Trent Brown, and Gabe Jackson in separate moves this offseason, leaving everyone wondering why. In response, the Raiders selected OT Alex Leatherwood at No. 17 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Leatherwood was considered more of a Day 2 prospect, and the move was viewed as another reach made by the organization. Now, what was once considered a strength for the Raiders, is suddenly deemed a weakness. How well and quickly the offensive line can gel together will go a long way in determining Carr’s outlook for the year.
As it stands, Carr projects for roughly 560 passing attempts, 4,500 yards, 25-30 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. On the ground, Carr could see 35-40 carries for 150 yards and 2-3 touchdowns.
Derek Carr’s ADP
In redraft leagues on Sleeper, Carr’s ADP is 188.9 as the QB26 overall. In superflex leagues, where quarterbacks have an increased value, his ADP nearly doubles to 105.9. On Fleaflicker, Carr is going off boards as the QB24 with an ADP of 190.7. Similarly, on the high stakes NFC format, Carr is the QB25 with an ADP of 163.0.
Should you draft Carr in 2021?
Am I drafting Carr in 1QB leagues? Probably not. Do I plan to stream Carr throughout the year? Absolutely.
In truth, Carr doesn’t need to be drafted in 1QB leagues. He’s going late in drafts as it is — he’s practically a flier at that point. Chances are someone will take him, but after opening against the Ravens and Steelers to start the season (two of the better defenses in the NFL), it’s likely they drop him early on.
For 2QB and superflex leagues, I’d target Carr as my QB2. He’s reliable with the ability to blow up in some weeks. Furthermore, we have the security knowing Carr will be the Raiders’ starting QB throughout the season, unlike some quarterbacks going around him in drafts.