In the mix for the third receiver role on the Los Angeles Chargers, rookie Josh Palmer’s fantasy football outlook could be on the rise should he continue to find success during the remaining weeks of the preseason. Can the former Tennessee Volunteer carve out a path on a deep Chargers offense, and should fantasy managers consider taking a shot on Palmer in upcoming drafts at his current ADP?
Josh Palmer’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Every year there is an under-the-radar guy that all of a sudden goes on Day 2, and you go, “wait, what just happened?” During the 2021 NFL Draft, one of those names was Josh Palmer, who the Chargers drafted with the 14th pick of Round 3. In what was a bit of a serendipitous moment, that was the same draft slot as Keenan Allen, who was selected with the 14th pick of the third round in 2013.
Palmer went under the radar to many because the stats didn’t pop off the page when you look at the national landscape.
He started six of 12 games as a true freshman for the Volunteers in 2017, recording 9 receptions for 98 yards. He started eight games in 2018, leading the SEC with 21.0 yards per reception (23 receptions, 484 yards, 2 touchdowns). Then, Palmer caught 34 passes for 457 yards and a touchdown as a junior for Tennessee.
As a senior in 2020, Palmer led the Vols in receiving yards (475), catches (33), and receiving touchdowns (4), with 23 of his 33 catches going for first downs. Like I said, unimpressive stats.
But here’s the thing, Tennessee is not a good team. There is a reason they have gone through three head coaches since 2017. During Palmer’s career, Tennessee passed for over 2,360 yards once (2019). Sure, Palmer only had 475 yards in 2020, but that was 23% of the yardage. You can’t fault Palmer for the ineptitude of the Vols’ offense.
Palmer could find a sizeable role as a rookie in 2021
You have to commend the Chargers’ scouting department for finding a potential gem in Palmer. There is a possible niche for him in this offense. No question Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have the top two spots, but who is the WR3? It’s an open competition between Palmer, Jalen Guyton, and fellow rookie Tyron Johnson.
Last season, Guyton was in that role. But to say he was unimpressive is an understatement. Although he was 13th in routes ran (566), Guyton saw just 55 targets (9.7%). Thus, if Palmer can win the job, there is a substantial role to be had with one of the NFL’s best deep-ball passers in Justin Herbert.
Palmer is not an elite talent. His route tree needs work, and no one would describe him as a burner (4.51 40-yard dash). Yet, his hand strength is phenomenal, and he shows solid footwork during his short and long routes. During the Senior Bowl, Palmer was able to showcase his varied release techniques both inside and out. If you are the Chargers, you love that nearly 70% of his receptions went for a first down.
Palmer led the team with 7 targets during the Chargers’ first preseason game, recording 6 receptions for 36 yards. He mixed in snaps both outside and in the slot and looked very comfortable going over the middle. Granted, Williams was out for this game (hip), but it goes to show what Palmer can do. In my opinion, Palmer has the leg up on a vital WR3 role that could be a massive value for fantasy managers.
Fantasy projection
Anytime you attempt to make projections for fantasy football, you have to decipher the coaching staff’s role. After all, they are the ones in control of how the offense will operate. Although Herbert is coming off an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, he now has a new head coach and offensive coordinator.
Anthony Lynn was fired after four seasons as the head coach — in his place comes Brandon Staley. Staley served as Rams defensive coordinator in 2020, after spending three years as the outside linebackers coach for Denver (2019) and Chicago (2017-18). At OC, the Chargers hired Joe Lombardi. The last time Lombardi was an OC was in 2014-2015 for the Detroit Lions. He spent the previous five years as the quarterbacks coach for the New Orleans Saints.
Some have expressed concerns about Lombardi, citing his history with the Lions. His offenses ranked 19th and 20th in yards and 22nd and 18th in total points scored. Last season, the Chargers were 11th in pace (26.4 seconds per play) but ran the ninth-most plays in neutral game scripts (750). When we look at Lombardi with the Lions, there is a stark difference. In neutral game scripts, they ranked 22nd and 30th.
The Chargers should find similar offensive success in 2021
While I understand the concerns, we have to remember these are entirely different rosters. The Chargers are arguably the most improved team coming out of the offseason. They could throw the ball at any opportunity given their strength along the offensive line and at receiver.
I think what the Saints did is a more apt comparison. Since 2017, the Saints passed on 68% of their plays when behind by seven or more points and 59% in neutral game scripts. This leads me to believe we do see more attempts out of Herbert in 2021.
When you factor in the changes on offense, along with the significant role the WR3 should play, Palmer could have a productive year as a rookie so long as he beats out Johnson and Guyton. My current projections have Palmer recording around 40 receptions on 60-65 targets for 530-550 yards with 4 touchdowns in 2021.
Josh Palmer’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Palmer has an ADP of 257.7 in PPR formats. Similarly, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Palmer has an ADP of 267.08.
Should you draft Palmer in 2021 for fantasy?
When you are late in fantasy drafts, all you do is take shots on upside — players whose fantasy outlook could dramatically outperform their ADP. Palmer is one of those players who could easily outperform his ADP this season. If anything, it would take an injury for it not to happen, and he is nearly undrafted on most sites.
There is no guarantee that Palmer wins the job. Of all the positional battles we are tracking in the preseason, the WR3 role for the Chargers is one of the most intriguing. It’s going to come down to Johnson and Palmer based on OTAs and training camp, but Palmer’s performance against the Rams might be enough for him to have the slight edge.
With drafts either currently running or set to kick off soon, pay attention to what comes out of camp with the Chargers — someone will get a massive value at the end of drafts.