In a potentially new-look Los Angeles Chargers’ offense, what is the fantasy football outlook for Keenan Allen, and can he provide value at his current 2021 ADP? Let’s take a look at what the change to Joe Lombardi and a second season with Justin Herbert could mean for Allen’s fantasy value.
Keenan Allen’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Chargers’ new offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, has spent the previous five seasons as the quarterbacks coach with the New Orleans Saints. Therefore, we need to look at their usage of the WR position to understand what we might see from Allen in terms of fantasy outlook in 2021.
As 2020 was somewhat of an outlier due to the injury to Michael Thomas, we need to look back a little further to get a feel for the Saints’ offense. Between 2017 and 2019, Thomas had 149, 147, and 185 targets, respectively. During that period, Thomas’ target share ranged from 28 to 33 percent.
The Saints’ offense lacked a dominant second receiver like what the Chargers have in Mike Williams. However, there is still a very real chance we see Allen receive at least 25% of the Chargers’ team targets. Therefore, it is realistic to expect Allen to see around 140-165 targets in 2021.
Allen had an intriguing first season with Herbert
There was concern that Allen might struggle with the change from Philip Rivers to Herbert. Instead, Allen received 147 targets at a career-high average of 10.5 targets per game. On a 16-game pace, Allen would have seen 168 targets last season.
Therefore, it appears Allen and Herbert have established a connection. What we did see was a drop in Allen’s yards per reception and aDOT with Herbert. Allen went from an aDOT of 10.1 in 2019 to 7.2 last season.
That resulted in a yards-per-reception drop below 10 (9.9) for the first time in his career. It also meant that Allen fell below 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2017.
Hopefully, Allen can improve on those efficiency numbers in his second year with Herbert. The addition of Lombardi could help. If we look at Thomas’ stats, he has never been below 11 yards per reception in his career. However, Thomas’s aDOT has varied between 7.7 and 9.6 in the last three years.
All of this gives a reasonably wide potential outlook for Allen in fantasy this year. The volume should be there, but can he be efficient enough with the volume to be a weekly WR1?
Fantasy projection
From a 2021 fantasy outlook, it’s tough to project what version of Allen to expect. Will we see the short-throw option from Herbert to Allen, or will things open up a little more? Additionally, do we see Allen take the Michael Thomas role and dominate targets, or does the presence of Williams even that out a little?
Right now, the projections are for Allen to see 25% of the Chargers’ targets. The presence of Williams, Jared Cook, and Austin Ekeler limits the ceiling on target share. Nevertheless, with a 25% target share, Allen can be more than successful.
Current 17-game projections have Allen seeing around 150 targets with 100-110 receptions, around 1,150-1,200 receiving yards, and 7-8 receiving touchdowns.
Keenan Allen’s ADP
Allen’s ADP for 2021 redraft leagues is 29.3 in 1QB formats 45.1 in 2QB/SF formats on Sleeper. His ADP on Fleaflicker and the high-stakes NFC site are both in a similar region for both formats.
Should you draft Allen in 2021?
Allen is currently being drafted as a top 10 WR for fantasy. That is certainly not overly ambitious and is around where most projection systems have him finishing. However, the question is whether taking him at his current ADP is drafting Allen at his ceiling?
Allen has only finished inside the top 10 at the WR position for fantasy once in his career (2017). In the three subsequent years, he has finished 14, 11, and 19. Therefore, realistically, the 10th overall WR is the most likely high outcome for Allen. His ceiling is higher, but the odds of reaching that could be slim.
The problem is the other high-end pass-catching options on the roster. Cook has familiarity with Lombardi from New Orleans and should feature heavily in the offensive plans. Williams is in a career year, and Ekeler is a fantastic pass-catching back.
However, while those three should compete for targets, there is a lack of depth on the roster beyond them. If one of the Chargers’ top four pass catchers goes down, the other three could see a huge boost. An injury to Ekeler or Williams could see Allen get as high as 175 targets in 2021.
The benefit to drafting Allen is that he appears to be a fairly safe option. On top of that, there is a potential path to Allen finishing as a top-five receiver in 2021.