Drafting a fantasy football team can be boiled down to two simple tenets — identify breakouts and avoid busts. Today, we are looking at NFC North fantasy football busts as such players can quickly derail your season.
NFC North fantasy football busts for 2021
Let’s go team by team through the NFC North division and pinpoint some potential busts that fantasy managers may want to avoid for the 2021 NFL season.
Chicago Bears
With just two relatively highly drafted players, our fantasy football bust options from the Bears are limited. With that being said, there is one guy I just love to hate on.
David Montgomery, Running Back | ADP: 40
Coming off a 2020 campaign where he finished as the overall RB6 in fantasy points per game (minimum eight games played), David Montgomery feels like a value in the third or fourth round. Let me throw some cold water on that real quick.
The 2021 season is not just a repeat of 2020. While Montgomery was a league winner down the stretch last year, we can’t let that cloud our judgment of his overall body of work.
From Weeks 12-17 last season, Montgomery averaged 25.7 PPR ppg with three games of over 100 rushing yards. Comparatively, from Weeks 1-9, he averaged 12.3 ppg with zero 100-yard rushing games. Similarly, as a rookie in 2019, Montgomery averaged 10.9 ppg.
So, we have a running back that’s been a mid RB3 for 25 games of his career and an elite RB1 for six. To clarify, Montgomery has been barely startable in fantasy for 80% of his games played. The Bears signed Damien Williams in free agency and should get Tarik Cohen back at some point, which caps Montgomery’s receiving upside. Montgomery is a risky pick at his current RB16 ADP, as he has all the makings of a fantasy football bust.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a difficult team to identify fantasy football busts as they only have one highly drafted player, D’Andre Swift. Still, a bust is any player that is unlikely to return the value of his draft position.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Wide Receiver | ADP: 144
It’s a bit unfair to call Amon-Ra St. Brown a potential bust given his WR60 ADP. However, even if St. Brown finishes above WR60, it’s unlikely to be by much.
St. Brown is a popular late-round selection because of the Lions’ ambiguous wide receiver corps. Their two flankers are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams, neither of which inspire much confidence. As a result, St. Brown doesn’t have a particularly high hill to climb to provide a positive return on investment. Unfortunately, the odds are heavily against him as a rookie.
According to FantasyPros’ Mike Tagliere, “There have been 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round of the NFL Draft over the last eight years. Not a single one of them has finished as a top-50 fantasy wide receiver in their rookie season.”
This is a relatively straightforward conclusion to draw. During your fantasy football draft, when looking for a dart to throw late, you’re better off not banking on a player to literally be the first in history to do something. Even at a very cheap price, St. Brown feels like a fantasy football bust.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are a team with three highly drafted players and one primed to be a fantasy football bust.
Adam Thielen, Wide Receiver | ADP: 52
This is a perfect example of what a difference two years can make. Prior to the 2020 season, I had Adam Thielen pegged as a must-draft player and one of the best values in fantasy football. Fast forward a year, and he has all the makings of a bust.
Over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Thielen was an absolute monster, averaging around 150 targets and 1,300 receiving yards. That’s what I was expecting last year following Stefon Diggs’ departure to Buffalo. Instead, even though I was technically correct, Thielen’s 2020 was not what I envisioned.
Although Thielen finished as the WR11 with 16.8 ppg, he was targeted just 108 times in 15 games. Additionally, he failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards. Fortunately, he managed to find the end zone 14 times despite a previous career-high of 9.
Entering 2021, Justin Jefferson is the clear WR1, and it’s unlikely Thielen maintains his red-zone efficiency. Therefore, if you give Thielen a similar season but remove 6 touchdowns, he would average about 13.6 ppg — a mid WR3. Accordingly, Thielen is primed to be a fantasy football bust at his WR19 ADP.
Green Bay Packers
Unlike the Lions, the Packers have a medley of highly productive fantasy assets to choose from. But, who is most likely to bust?
Robert Tonyan, Tight End | ADP: 100
I don’t dislike Robert Tonyan. In actuality, I don’t even think he’s a bad pick. He just happens to be the Packer most likely to bust.
In 2020, Tonyan finished as the overall TE5, averaging 11.8 ppg. While on the surface that looks impressive, it’s important to dig a bit deeper into how Tonyan got there. Tonyan caught just 52 passes last season. Of the top 18 tight ends in ppg with at least eight games played, no one caught fewer balls or saw fewer targets. Yet, Tonyan managed to find the end zone a league-high 11 times — tied with Travis Kelce. While Kelce was targeted 145 times, Tonyan saw just 59 targets.
Let’s take a moment to really grasp how absurdly efficient Tonyan was in 2020. He posted a ridiculous 88% catch rate. He also caught a touchdown on 18.6% of his targets. Compared to Kelce, that’s 11.1% higher. Unsustainable efficiency is a path to becoming a fantasy football bust.
Tonyan having Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback will likely keep his touchdown rate higher than average. Still, it would be foolish to expect Tonyan to be able to maintain his overall efficiency numbers. Rodgers is coming off an MVP campaign and is almost certainly going to see regression in his efficiency, which will trickle down to his receivers. Tonyan is fine to draft if he falls, but he is probably overvalued at his TE11 ADP.
Jason Katz is a Fantasy Analyst at Pro Football Network. You can find him on Twitter @jasonkatz13.