After a sensational 2019 season where he burst onto the scene, Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp disappointed many last year, putting his fantasy football outlook for 2021 up for debate. With a new quarterback with one of the best arms in the game now under center, has Kupp become a value at his current ADP, and what should fantasy managers expect in 2021?
Cooper Kupp’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Although he led the Rams in receptions and yards, Kupp saw a dip in production from the year prior when he posted a stat line of 94 receptions, 1,161 yards, and 10 touchdowns. In 2020, Kupp recorded 92 receptions on 124 targets for 974 yards and 3 touchdowns.
This was quite a disappointment as Kupp was the WR4 in 2019, leaving many ready to push him into the upper echelon of fantasy rankings. With the Rams going extremely run-heavy in the red zone, Kupp’s lack of touchdowns became a major talking point last season.
Kupp ended the year as the WR26 (13.9 ppg), a stark decline from his WR15 ADP. Of receivers who saw 40 or more targets, Kupp was 67th in fantasy points per target (1.67), far less than his 2019 production (2.0).
How will Matthew Stafford affect Kupp’s outlook?
It’s not like Kupp fell off the map. He had 2 fewer receptions and about 200 fewer yards. Most people would be happy producing a season like that. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle between his WR4 finish in 2019 and WR26 of last season, especially when you add Matthew Stafford.
Jared Goff needed his pass catchers to make plays and score touchdowns for him rather than create them himself. Stafford, on the other hand, is one of the best off-script QBs in the league. Furthermore, Kupp is one of the best at finding the soft spots in the zone and getting open.
Kupp is the best slot option Stafford has had since Golden Tate. In four seasons with Stafford, Tate topped 1,000 receiving yards three times. Kupp’s outlook has him locked in as a WR2 for fantasy. He is a perennial threat to push for 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. Throw in the Stafford effect, and Kupp — along with Robert Woods — could have a sensational season.
Fantasy projection
Since Sean McVay took over in Los Angeles, the Rams are top five in the NFL in passing yards and top eight in passing attempts. When you consider the Rams being second in drives reaching the red zone over the last two years and Stafford’s ability to find the end zone, Kupp should have a bounceback season.
Kupp has never been the deep threat on the Rams. This was only magnified with Goff’s ineptitude on deeper targets. Last season, Goff ranked 56th out of 63 quarterbacks in average throw depth (6.0) compared to Stafford at 15th (8.5). Once you take into account Kupp’s 6.0 aDOT (average depth of target) and lack of TDs, his fantasy value was always on the precipice of disappointment.
The question will be how much Stafford targets him rather than Woods, Van Jefferson, or even one of the greatest deep threats of all time in DeSean Jackson. Kupp has averaged 21% of the targets along with 32% of the receiver targets. So long as he can win from the slot, where he played roughly 65% of his snaps, he’s going to get peppered with targets.
Kupp is set for a massive bounce-back year in 2021, especially with the Rams losing Cam Akers, which might change their game script. Current projections have Kupp slated for around 125 targets with 90 receptions, 1,050 yards, and 6 touchdowns this season.
Cooper Kupp’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Kupp is currently the WR19 with an ADP of 49.3 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increase in value, he falls to 65.9. Meanwhile, on Fleaflicker, he is going as the WR18 at 48.8 ADP. On the high stakes NFC format, Kupp is the WR18 with a 42.78 ADP.
Should you draft Kupp at this ADP in 2021?
Kupp is a perfectly fine draft pick in 2021 for a WR2 on your roster. But does he have the upside of others going later than him? That I am not so sure of.
For one, he should be drafted second behind Woods. But also going behind Kupp are D.J. Moore (47.7), Ja’Marr Chase (50.1), and CeeDee Lamb (52.8). I’d argue all three have higher ceilings but slightly less stable weekly floors.
All Kupp needs is a few more touchdowns to match his two-year average, and you have a WR1 on your hands. It’s certainly possible, and he is not a player I would bet against on draft day.