Arguably the fastest player in the NFL, San Francisco 49ers RB Raheem Mostert has the chance to blow up for fantasy football on any carry he receives. With that said, those touches can be hard to come by due to injuries. With added competition in the backfield, what is the fantasy outlook for Mostert, and should managers consider drafting him at his current ADP?
Raheem Mostert’s fantasy outlook for 2021
After four years of little to no production, Mostert found success in 2019. He was the RB24 while racking up 772 rushing yards, 180 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns. There was hope that Mostert’s newfound momentum could propel him into a similar finish in 2020. And for one game, you absolutely got that.
In Week 1, Mostert was the RB6 (25.1 PPR) on 20 opportunities for 151 total yards and 1 touchdown. Then an all too familiar issue popped up in Week 2 when Mostert injured his MCL. However, his week was salvaged (RB16) by his incredible efficiency, recording 92 yards on 8 carries. He went on to miss the next two games, which started a pattern for the rest of the year.
In total, Mostert went on to play in as many games as he missed (6). He ended the year as the RB48 with 521 rushing yards on 104 carries (48.6% rush share) for 2 touchdowns while recording 16 receptions (19 targets) for 156 yards and an additional score.
Embroiled in a committee approach with Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson, and Jerick McKinnon, Mostert struggled to make a massive impact for fantasy, finishing as an RB3 or worse in his final five games.
But with Coleman and McKinnon on other teams and Wilson on the PUP with a “significant” torn meniscus, could Mostert’s fantasy outlook be on the rise in 2021?
Can Mostert take advantage of his opportunity?
We know Mostert can have blow-up games. I mean, he is the fastest player in the NFL, clocking in the two fastest plays of 2020 and the single fastest recorded speed in NFL Next Gen Stats history at 23.09 mph (Week 2 of 2020). He has a career average of 5.6 yards per carry and has 25 carries of 15 yards or more. Unfortunately, he just can’t stay on the field.
Despite being 29 years old, he has played in just 58 of 96 possible games and has just 282 career carries. Throw in having never seen over 22 targets in a season, and it’s difficult to see a path where Mostert could return to RB2 status.
We also need to consider what happened in the NFL Draft. For one, the 49ers not only selected Ohio State RB Trey Sermon in Round 3 (pick No. 88), they traded up to do so. Also, they drafted QB Trey Lance with the No. 3 overall pick, and sooner rather than later, he will be the QB under center.
While this will make the offense as a whole far more dynamic, his dual-threat ability will cut into the total opportunities for the backfield. With Mostert having a minimal role in the passing game, he could struggle in 2021 to return value.
Given that he will be at his healthiest, don’t be surprised if Mostert comes out of the gates hot again. As the weeks move on, the risk rises along with the odds that Sermon and Wayne Gallman eat into the opportunities. I would heavily consider moving him after those decent games before the value starts to dip.
Fantasy Projection
You would be hard-pressed to find a better play caller than Kyle Shanahan. Few are better at capitalizing on their players’ skill sets and getting them in advantageous situations. Since 2012, his offenses have finished inside the top five four separate times and only once outside the top 13. When you add in the 49ers have averaged 441.5 rush attempts per season (43.4%), that’s a valuable position to target in fantasy.
The problem is, it’s unlikely Shanahan will ever use a primary back. Even for Mostert, he has recorded over 60% of the snaps just three times (6.6%) in 45 games with the 49ers.
A best-case scenario could be for a two-back approach with Mostert and Sermon, but it’s more likely we see a three-headed approach with Gallman in the mix as well. Gallman signed a one-year deal after a career-best season filling in for the injured Saquon Barkley, totaling 796 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Add in Lance and potentially five designed rushes per game, and the chances to get the ball with any consistency are stretched even thinner. Factoring in Mostert may miss a few games along the way, his outlook for fantasy leaves him in the muddy RB3 range. Current projections have Mostert for around 170 carries for 825 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 20 to 23 receptions for 220 yards and another score.
Raheem Mostert’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Mostert is currently the RB29 with an ADP of 71.1 in PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he slides to 94.7. On Fantasy Football Calculator, he is going as the RB27 at 56.7 ADP. Similarly, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Mostert is the RB30 with an 76.5 ADP and has an ADP of 67.5 on Fleaflicker.
Should you draft Mostert for fantasy in 2021?
Mostert is going in the “RB dead zone” in the fifth round of drafts. It’s an area where the upside of the running back is lacking, yet the value of quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends still holds strong.
At this point, unless I am going Zero RB in a PPR league, I would not want an RB in this range as my RB2 or higher. There is too much inconsistency for me to rely on — this includes Mostert. With his role and availability likely to diminish as the season goes and matchups meaning more and more, at most, he would be an RB3. The big games will come due to his explosiveness, but there is always the concern he doesn’t finish a game when you need it the most.