Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had another remarkable season in 2020 with 4,740 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He has finished as a QB1 in 71% of his 45 active games since 2018. So what is Mahomes’ fantasy football outlook for 2021, and can he return value on his ADP as the first QB off the board?
Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy outlook for 2021
The only other quarterback with more passing yards than Mahomes (13,865) since 2018 is Matt Ryan (13,971). However, no other quarterback has more passing touchdowns (114) than Mahomes during this time frame. The Chiefs will continue to lean heavily on their passing game, keeping 2021 fantasy managers salivating.
In early February, Mahomes had surgery to fix a turf toe injury that slowed him down in the second half of the 2020 season and the playoffs. The poor pass protection of the Chiefs’ offensive line played a significant role in the franchise failing to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Mahomes hasn’t had any setbacks with his rehab and was not limited during OTAs back in May. Therefore, Mahomes should be at 100% well before the start of the regular season.
The great news is that Chiefs general manager Brett Veach vowed to fix the offensive line this offseason and delivered. The new additions from free agency and the NFL Draft give Kansas City enough depth to handle offensive line injuries that could pop up throughout this upcoming season.
In 2020, the Chiefs ranked first in total yards (415) and sixth in points (28.5) per game. Kansas City’s offense has thrived with Mahomes under center and Andy Reid as the team’s head coach. There is nothing to suggest that this trend wouldn’t continue in 2021 with the receiving weapons Mahomes has at his disposal. Six of his top seven targets leaders from last season will return in 2021.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will command a majority of the targets
WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce will continue to command a sizeable target share. Both could combine for 300 targets. Since 2016, Hill and Kelce have accounted for 1,217 targets, 11,535 receiving yards, and 85 touchdowns.
Mecole Hardman could become a viable third option for the Chiefs in 2021. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also projected to be targeted more as a receiver out of the backfield.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have a favorable schedule in 2021 and the receiving weapons to exploit their opponents. In addition to their division games, Kansas City will also play all of the AFC North and NFC East.
Fantasy projection
Since 2018, Mahomes has averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 308 passing yards per game. He has also run for 200+ rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. During this time, Mahomes has ranked first, sixth, and third among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game.
Mahomes projects for around 635 pass attempts, 420 completions, 5,000 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He also projects for around 65 rushing attempts for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes’ ADP
According to Fleaflicker, Mahomes is the first quarterback being drafted and has an ADP of 18.8. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Mahomes has an ADP of 27.46 as the QB1 overall. Similarly, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 21.3.
Should you draft Mahomes in 2021?
Absolutely! Mahomes is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL and is tethered by one of the top offensive minds in Reid. He will be among the leaders in passing yards and touchdowns.
Mahomes also has exceptional weapons at all of the offensive skill positions. He is one of the safest and consistent players in fantasy football and has a good chance to finish as a top-three quarterback. You can still be a fantasy football juggernaut by drafting a quarterback early.