Phillip Lindsay’s first two seasons in the NFL were magnificent. The undrafted free agent hit a wall in his third year in Denver due to injuries and suboptimal offensive line play. Lindsay’s fantasy football outlook is more optimistic with the Texans in 2021, but is he a value at his current ADP?
Phillip Lindsay’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Lindsay had consecutive seasons with 1,000+ rushing yards in 2018 and 2019. He finished as an RB2+ in 54% of his 31 active games in PPR formats during that span of time. Lindsay averaged 13.4 rushing attempts per game but wasn’t used much as a receiver out of the backfield. As a result, he only averaged 3 targets per game.
However, Lindsay was only active in 11 games last season. He generated 12 opportunities and 6 fantasy points per game. Still, Lindsay did have 8 rushing attempts of 15+ yards last season.
The Broncos and Lindsay mutually agreed to part ways earlier this offseason, with the RB signing a one-year deal worth $3.25 million with the Texans in free agency. The 27-year-old joins a crowded backfield in Houston, including David Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead.
The Texans are also dealing with quarterback Deshaun Watson’s legal situation, despite him reporting to training camp. The passing game was a key component of Houston’s offense in 2020. Furthermore, their defense may force them into passing situations.
Can the Texans depend on the running game?
Not likely, given their 91.6 rushing yards per game (31st) last season. Moreover, the Texans enter the season with nine new offensive linemen.
On the surface, there doesn’t appear to be much opportunity in the Texans’ backfield. ESPN’s Sarah Bishop mentioned that according to a team source, Lindsay is expected to handle a high percentage of the rushing attempts for the Texans. Johnson would play a third-down role similar to what Duke Johnson did last season. It will be interesting to see if this rumor comes to fruition.
Johnson finished as the RB21 in PPR formats last year. He played 74% of the offensive snaps and averaged 16 opportunities, 84 total yards, and 15 fantasy points per game.
Ingram, on the other hand, didn’t look like a starting-caliber running back in 2020. The 31-year-old running back is likely to have a minimal role in the backfield this season. Yet, he could see rushing attempts inside the red zone. In his career, Ingram has scored 54 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.
Burkhead is a talented back, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. He’s unlikely to be fantasy-relevant with the crowded running back room in Houston.
Given the circumstances, how does the situation in Houston impact Lindsay’s fantasy outlook?
Fantasy projection
Lindsay projects for around 150 opportunities, 650 total yards, and 5 touchdowns in 2021. In Houston, he could inherit a larger opportunity share as the season progresses.
Phillip Lindsay’s ADP
Lindsay is readily available in the 11th round of fantasy drafts when reviewing redraft ADP data from Sleeper. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Lindsay has an ADP of 137.38. He is going even lower on Fleaflicker, where his ADP is 154.5.
Should you draft Lindsay in 2021?
Yes, you should. Lindsay should be drafted as an RB4 with upside. He has the makings of becoming a difference-maker late in the season.