Mark Ingram was a key contributor in the Baltimore Ravens’ explosive running game. After being released, he immediately landed with the Texans. Ingram’s new situation in Houston’s crowded backfield is less than ideal and clouds his fantasy football outlook, but is he a value at his current ADP?
Mark Ingram’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Ingram began his NFL career with the Saints in 2011. The former Heisman Trophy winner was a solid performer in New Orleans’ prolific backfield. Ingram really hit his stride from 2014 to 2018, averaging 17.6 opportunities and 15.6 PPR fantasy points per game. He finished as an RB2+ in 60% of his 69 active games during this time frame.
The veteran running back found himself with the Ravens during his age-30 season. Ingram played in 15 games and accumulated 231 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 1,265 total yards in 2019. Last season, he only played in 11 games and dealt with numerous injuries. Ingram finished the year with 80 opportunities and 349 total yards and was outshined by Gus Edwards and rookie J.K. Dobbins.
You can hold off Father Time, but never defeat him
Ingram’s fantasy outlook in Houston does not seem promising as he enters his age-31 season. Since 2000, there have been 226 running backs who scored 230+ PPR fantasy points. This feat has only been accomplished by seven backs who were 31 or older. The most recent being DeAngelo Williams, who finished with 231.4 fantasy points back in 2015.
Houston is not positioned to be a fantasy bonanza in 2021
The Texans’ offense in 2020 leaned heavily on Deshaun Watson and the passing game. Even though Watson reported to training camp, there is uncertainty surrounding him due to his legal situation.
Additionally, Houston’s running game was nonexistent last season. The Texans ranked 31st with 91.6 rushing yards per game. Moreover, Houston enters 2021 with nine new offensive linemen. The Texans’ defense could also be a liability, which further compromises the running game.
Ingram will be sharing opportunities with David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead. Lindsay, in my opinion, threatens Ingram’s workload the most.
Lindsay recorded consecutive seasons with 1,000+ rushing yards in 2018 and 2019. He finished as an RB2+ in 54% of his 31 active games in PPR formats during that period.
Fantasy projection
Ingram projects for around 55 opportunities, 250 total yards, and 3 touchdowns in 2021. Houston’s backfield projects for around 460 total opportunities, but Johnson and Lindsay will handle a high percentage of them.
Mark Ingram’s ADP
Ingram is readily available very late when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker, where he is being selected at an ADP of 209. In pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, Ingram has an even later ADP of 257.82. Meanwhile, his ADP in half-PPR formats on Sleeper is 233.6.
Should you draft Ingram in 2021?
Nope. Houston’s backfield has too many mouths to feed. Ingram provides you with minimal upside at this stage of his career. Lindsay is my preferred target and could slowly earn more opportunities in the committee as the season progresses.