After missing the majority of the 2021 season, the Chicago Bears look to have explosive RB Tarik Cohen back after tearing his ACL. Joining a somewhat crowded backfield, what is Cohen’s fantasy football outlook, and should you consider him at his current ADP?
Tarik Cohen’s fantasy outlook for 2021
If you had forgotten Cohen’s name, don’t feel bad as many have by this point. But perhaps it’s time to get reacquainted with the explosive pass-catching back.
Drafted in 2017, Cohen had his best season in 2018 when he totaled 1,169 yards and 8 touchdowns as the RB11 (14.6 ppg). Due to a massive falloff in explosive plays (9 runs of 15+ yards to 1 in 2019), Cohen fell to just 624 yards and 3 touchdowns. Of his total, 213 came on the ground off 64 carries, with the bulk coming through the air, recording 79 receptions on 104 targets for 456 yards. Seeing 18% of the targets, Cohen was essentially the Bears’ WR2.
Finishing as the RB27 in PPR, Cohen remained a value in reception-based leagues. Unfortunately, he was not able to bounce back in 2020. Seeing only 32 opportunities, Cohen suffered a torn ACL in Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons. His absence helped pave the way for David Montgomery’s breakout season.
Can Cohen bounce back from his season-ending injury?
It will have been 11 months since Cohen suffered the injury once Week 1 of the 2021 season rolls around. However, there are some concerns about whether or not Cohen will be ready for the season opener. He did not participate in OTAs or minicamp, and he has been described as “stiff.” That’s not exactly enough to make a determination on his status, but we will learn more as the summer progresses.
Even if he does miss Week 1, Cohen is an essential piece of the Bears’ backfield and brings a dynamic change of pace, assuming a full recovery. If you are in a PPR format, Cohen could end up having some sneaky value in 2021. But knowing when to start him could be problematic, especially given the potential offensive changes we might see.
Fantasy projection
When you create projections, you have to build a narrative. What is the team in question going to look like in 2021? How do the players mesh, coaches, SOS, losses/additions, etc.? I bring this up for the Bears as there are more questions than answers.
For starters, at some point, there will be a change at QB from Andy Dalton to Justin Fields. More than likely, this occurs in the season once the crowd grows restless in Soldier Field. Once that change is made, the offense completely shifts on its head to feature a big-armed, dual-threat QB.
Issue No. 2 is that Nagy and even GM Ryan Pace are likely losing their jobs. They are both on the hot seat, and it’s hard to envision them surviving the 2021 season. I am already looking forward to Joe Brady coaching Fields in 2022, but that’s a topic for a different time. If Nagy were ousted, it would mean a change in playcalling.
The Bears have been horrendous running the ball
Honestly, I am still trying to figure out why Nagy is resuming play-calling duties other than wanting to go out on his own shield. Heading into Week 12, the Bears ranked 32nd in rushing attempts (217), rushing TDs (2), rushing yards per attempt (3.6), and rushing yards per game (78.2). They were also last in average time per drive at 2:40.
They were 31st in yards per game (300.9), points per game (19.1), yards per play (4.7), first downs (188), third-down conversions (42), red-zone TDs (13), yards per drive (26.6), and expected points (-32.55). The New York Jets were 32nd in all categories.
I believe we will see all of these changes take place, but the role of Cohen will remain the same. He will be a change-of-pace RB that you try to get outside the tackle, use in the passing game, and try to bring a suddenness to the offense.
While early, I have Cohen for around 60-65 carries, 300 yards, and 1 touchdown while adding 45 receptions on 55-60 targets for 330 yards and another score.
Tarik Cohen’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Cohen is currently being drafted at an ADP of 214.1 in half-PPR formats. On Fleaflicker, his ADP is a bit earlier at 189. However, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Cohen has an ADP of 232.39.
Should you draft Tarik Cohen in 2021 for fantasy?
In leagues whose scoring emphasizes receptions, Cohen is much more attractive for fantasy as he is presumably the receiving back. With that said, he no longer has the firm grasp on the role as he once did.
Montgomery showed he is a capable receiver out of the backfield, and Damien Williams has nearly 140 career receptions. Outside of Montgomery being the lead back, Cohen, Williams, and Khalil Herbert are in competition for touches. Because of this, all of their values for fantasy are reduced.
Still, if I were to take a shot on one of them, it would be Cohen. But the days of his 2018 season are not coming back. He is best as a depth RB4/5 who could have RB3 performances. There is a path to where he sees 7-9 opportunities per game which is hard to find at his current ADP.