Few teams enter the 2021 NFL season with more uncertainty than the Detroit Lions. Yet, it could also lead to new opportunities for players like WR Quintez Cephus to carve out a role on the depth chart. Can that lead to a productive fantasy football season? What is Cephus’ fantasy outlook, and should he be on your radar with his late-round ADP in 2021?
Quintez Cephus’ fantasy outlook for 2021
It’s safe to say we aren’t expecting a lot from the Lions this season. They are finally going all-in for a rebuild and will be in a chase for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. With that said, turnover on the roster, especially at WR, has left some gaping holes that under-the-radar players could fill. One such player with promise is Cephus.
Although he did not receive much playing time last year, Cephus was a talented rookie coming out of Wisconsin. He fell in the draft due to an off-field issue that a court acquitted him of, and the university reinstated Cephus. He amassed 93 receptions for 1,496 yards and 13 touchdowns in his time at Wisconsin.
Cephus struggled to find playing time as a rookie, receiving a 79% snap share in Week 1 and then crossing the 60% snap threshold just once more (43% average). In 13 games, Cephus recorded 20 receptions on 35 targets for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns. He showcased his downfield ability as he was second on the team in aDOT (average depth of target) at 14.7 and led the team in yards per reception at 17.5.
Cephus could receive a bigger workload in 2021
Cephus showed some flashes last season with Matthew Stafford at QB. Now, he has the potential to carve out a significant role for himself in the offense. The question is — can Jared Goff come anywhere close to Stafford’s willingness/ability to push the ball downfield? In 2020, Stafford attempted 192 intermediate to deep passes (36%) compared to Goff’s 139 (25.1%) beyond 10 yards.
With players like Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown competing with him for a starting role, Cephus should be able to find the field sooner than later. This offense is wide open for a player to seemingly come out of nowhere and secure a role. Whether that will be enough to count for fantasy is a different story entirely, making Cephus a dart-throw candidate.
Fantasy projection
No team is undergoing more change than the Lions are in 2021. Sure, it’s not a flashy name like Aaron Rodgers to paste on the headline, but there are several unanswered questions. First, what is the new offense going to look like this season? While Dan Campbell will be biting off knee caps, the offense and how it operates will be OC Anthony Lynn’s responsibility. Lynn was previously the Los Angeles Chargers head coach.
Lynn has shown the ability to change his offense to fit his personnel, and if we look at the Lions, their strengths are on the offensive line and at running back. So long as the Lions are staying with teams, I would expect to see an offense that works through the backfield. It should be a mix of a steady dose of rushes with D’Andre Swift and backfield targets to him and Jamaal Williams.
In turn, that will help set up play-action, which aligns with Jared Goff’s wheelhouse thus far in his NFL career. However, we do not know how much of Goff’s success was down to his skills or that of Sean McVay in his ear dissecting the defense from the sidelines.
Can Cephus find enough targets in a crowded offense?
The other talking point will be the distribution of targets and how the WR room shakes out. Following the losses of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola, the Lions lead the NFL in vacated targets (64.1%), targets inside the 10-yard line (50%), and intended air yards (72.3%).
While the Lions brought in Williams and Perriman in free agency and drafted St. Brown, the pecking order is up for debate.
Between the receivers, the involvement of RBs in the passing game, and TE T.J. Hockenson (the likely target leader), Cephus will struggle for targets. Current projections have Cephus generating around 40 targets, 25 receptions, 375-390 yards, and 2 touchdowns in 2021.
Quintez Cephus’ fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Cephus is currently the WR83 with an ADP of 229.8 in PPR formats. On Fantasy Football Calculator and Fleaflicker, he is going undrafted.
Should you draft Cephus in 2021 for fantasy?
It’s not uncommon for bad NFL teams to produce fantasy-relevant talent. Just look at 2020 and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Virtually no one expected them to be the team to produce a breakout RB (James Robinson). But why does this happen? What is the common denominator?
It comes down to ambiguity at a position. Poor teams tend to have more competitions going on for sizeable roles on the offense. They are still trying to find the player who can be their RB1 or WR1 and lead their team. Competitive offenses already have their depth chart nailed down.
If you can draft the correct player, all of a sudden, that late-round pick turns into the leader on a depth chart, creating value for fantasy. With no clear front-runner in the Lions’ WR room, I would not be shocked if Cephus could work his way into a starting role earlier than some might think.
As a final draft pick, there is some upside in Cephus for fantasy. We need to watch the first few weeks of games to see how the snaps and target shares break down and get a better feel for the offense in 2021.