When given a chance, Vikings RB Alexander Mattison has shown glimpses of how special he could be for fantasy football. Now, with a longer season ahead of us, what is Mattison’s fantasy outlook in 2021, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Alexander Mattison’s fantasy outlook for 2021
“What if Alexander Mattison saw a significant workload? He would be a league winner!”
For the third year in a row now, people are already starting to say the same thing about Mattison. Now, I am not going to say they are wrong — just unimaginative. It’s not hyperbole to claim that Mattison might be the most valuable backup in both the NFL and fantasy. Should anything happen to Dalvin Cook, Mattison could be a league winner. Oh no, I said it.
Okay, in all seriousness, Mattison is a highly talented back but just so happens to play behind arguably the second-best RB in the NFL. Due to this, Mattison has seen a limited workload throughout his first two seasons. Playing in 26 games, Mattison has 196 carries for 896 yards and 3 touchdowns. Additionally, he’s racked up 23 receptions on 27 targets for 207 yards and another score.
How has Mattison fared behind Cook?
In the 24 games where Mattison has played along with Cook, he averaged 5.1 PPR points with 6.8 carries for 32.2 yards and 0.08 TDs. Furthermore, he’s caught 0.79 receptions for 6.3 receiving yards. In the two games without Cook in the lineup, Mattison averaged 16.7 PPR points along with 15.5 carries for 60.5 yards and 2 receptions for 27 yards and 0.5 TDs.
However, when you have a two-game sample size, it skews the totals. The majority of Mattison’s points (29.5) and production came in Week 17 as the RB4. Still, the other game he had a disappointing RB45 performance of Week 6, where he scored just 4 points without Cook. But that was also a game script issue. The Falcons were up 23-0 early in the third quarter, which resulted in an abandonment of the rushing game (12 attempts for Mattison).
The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. While Mattison would be an RB2 for fantasy, he is not Cook. So, we need to pull back some of those world-beating expectations anytime Mattison looks to be the featured back.
Fantasy projection
On the majority of teams, Mattison would likely have a significant role. However, he plays behind one of the few workhorse-style RBs left in the NFL. While Derrick Henry is credited with the most opportunities (409), Cook averaged more per game than Henry with 26.1 compared to 25.6.
While there was a change at offensive coordinator, I would not be concerned about how this may impact Mattison and his fantasy outlook. After all, Klint Kubiak is literally Gary Kubiak’s son. This is an offense built on running the ball down the throats of the opponent and allowing Kirk Cousins to make efficient throws. Over the past two seasons, the Vikings have rushed on 47% of the plays, which has been a top-six percentage in the NFL.
Cook has, fairly or unfairly, gained the reputation as being injury-prone. And while he has yet to play a full 16-game season, neither has your favorite running back in all likelihood. In reality, nearly every running back misses time. Last season, only three of the top 20 RBs played in all 16 contests (Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, and Nyheim Hines). One of those is a walking superman, and the other two are in timeshares.
Now that the NFL has a 17-game schedule, I do not believe we will see any RB play in all 17 games. This is especially true of Cook, given the workload he sees each game. All this does is create more potential opportunities for Mattison to receive work.
While he will not see enough touches each week to be relevant, early projections have Mattison with around 120 carries for 520-530 yards and 4 TDs. Moreover, he could reel in 15-18 receptions for 130-140 yards and another score.
Alexander Mattison’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Mattison owns an ADP of 145.7 in half-PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Mattison has a 132.93 ADP. Additionally, his ADP is 145.3 on Fleaflicker.
Should you draft Mattison for fantasy in 2021?
Roster juggling will be a legitimate skill fantasy managers need to have in 2021. We are entering an unprecedented season coming off the heels of another unprecedented one. We have no idea how these teams will handle the extra game. Will backfield splits remain the same? Or do we see a higher emphasis on committees and getting guys to the end of the season through load management?
Because of this, how much priority should we place on handcuffs at the end of our benches? With every roster spot being critical this season, is it worth holding onto that player on the chance they land a starting role?
That is the question that surrounds Mattison. While he unquestionably has increased value to whoever rosters Cook, it will take losing him for an extended number of weeks for that roster spot to find any value. And even then, are you getting the Week 17 Mattison or the Week 6 version? Mattison should be drafted, no question. But I am not reaching for him, especially if I do not already roster Cook. While maybe not the “league-winner” some want to call him, Mattison could be a lifesaver should he be needed down the stretch.