Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has undergone a career renaissance since arriving in the Volunteer State. The veteran signal-caller has averaged 23 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. The Titans traded for veteran wide receiver Julio Jones this summer. What is Tannehill’s ADP, and can Jones’ arrival allow Tannehill’s fantasy football outlook to soar higher?
Ryan Tannehill’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Tannehill averaged 238.6 passing yards in 2020. His fantasy production was bolstered by 33 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns on 43 carries. Tannehill is still in a great position for another phenomenal season in 2021.
The Titans finished last season ranked fifth in total yards (385.4) and fourth in points scored (29.6) per game. The team did lean heavily on the running game with Derrick Henry. The only team who averaged more rushing attempts per game than the Titans (32) were the Ravens (34.6).
New offensive coordinator
You may be wondering if this trend will continue with former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith now the Falcons head coach. Multiple reports suggest that it will with new OC Todd Downing.
This was the second time in three seasons that head coach Mike Vrabel will promote his tight ends coach to offensive coordinator. The 40-year-old Downing does have experience as an NFL offensive coordinator. He held the role back in 2017 under head coach Jack Del Rio. Given the success the Titans have had offensively, it would be surprising to see Downing deviate from the pass-to-run ratio from last season.
The Titans’ offensive line is one of the best in the NFL
The Titans deployed one of the top offensive lines in the NFL in 2020. Tennessee saw extensive improvement from this unit last season. The Titans’ run blocking paved the way for Henry to accumulate 2,000+ rushing yards. The unit was also excellent in pass protection, giving up 31 fewer sacks.
Tennessee gets a boost with the return of Taylor Lewan from injury. The Titans have four returning starters and healthy competition at the right tackle position. Tennessee’s offensive line is looking great going into the 2021 season.
Tennessee has one of the top wide receiver duos in the league
These factors bode well for Tannehill’s fantasy outlook in 2021. In addition to Henry, he also has one of the top receiving duos in the NFL to target in the passing game in A.J. Brown and Jones. Opposing defenses will have to make some difficult decisions with both of them on the field.
Brown finished as a WR1 in 43% of his 14 active games last year. He’s averaged 7.6 targets, 5 receptions, 76.6 receiving yards, and 18 PPR fantasy points per game. Brown is one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL and could have a career season in 2021.
Jones’ statistical body of work is well-documented. He has been one of the most productive receivers in NFL history. From his rookie season in 2011 to 2020, he’s averaged 10 targets, 6.3 receptions, 96.2 receiving yards, 123.7 receiving air yards (indicate how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught), and 19 PPR fantasy points per game in 126 active games.
Both receivers are projected to see enough targets this season to flourish.
The Titans have ex-Rams receiver Josh Reynolds, ex-Colts receiver Marcus Johnson, and fourth-round draft pick Dez Fitzpatrick on the roster. Tight end Anthony Firkser will also see additional targets with Jonnu Smith now with the Patriots.
Will the Titans’ defense be improved in 2021?
Tennessee’s defense, especially the secondary, struggled last season. The Titans allowed the fourth-most total yards (398) and ninth-most points (27) per game. Tennessee’s defense allowed opponents to convert 52% of their third-down opportunities. The unit also allowed offenses to score touchdowns on 69% of their visits to the red zone.
The Titans addressed the defense this offseason, but Downing may need to open up the passing game more in 2021 to position them in more favorable conditions.
Fantasy projection
Since taking over for Marcus Mariota six weeks into the 2019 season, Tannehill has been breathtaking in Tennessee. He has a QB rating of 110.6 and a completion percentage of 67%. The perception is that Tannehill is simply a game manager, but that isn’t reality. He is capable of fully carrying the offense.
Tannehill projects for around 500 pass attempts, 4,000 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2021. Additionally, he could record roughly 50 rushing attempts, 210 rushing yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns.
Ryan Tannehill’s ADP
When you look at National Fantasy Championship, Tannehill has an ADP of 99.76. Meanwhile, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 99.9. On Flealicker, he is going a bit higher at 93.8.
Should you draft Tannehill in 2021?
Absolutely. Tannehill is one of my favorite values in redraft this summer. The Titans could lean more on the passing game in 2021 with the addition of Jones and the state of the draft. Tannehill can be viewed as a low-end QB1.