Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey averaged 26 opportunities, 123.4 total yards, and 30 PPR fantasy football points in three games last season. Injuries derailed his 2020 campaign, but will McCaffrey return to form during the 2021 season? What does McCaffrey’s fantasy outlook and ADP suggest?
Christian McCaffrey’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Panthers struggled offensively last year without McCaffrey’s statistical production. Mike Davis did his best to fill the void. Like McCaffrey, he accumulated rushing and receiving yards with solid volume. Davis started strong from Weeks 2-6, averaging 20 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets), 96.4 total yards, and 21 PPR fantasy points per game. However, the trend changed from Week 7 and on as Davis averaged 15 opportunities, 59.2 total yards, and 11.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
The Darnold Effect
Carolina will begin 2021 with offseason addition Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback. He has only averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game in his 38 active contests. Two of three seasons with the Jets were with head coach Adam Gase, who also called the plays. This will be the third quarterback in three seasons that McCaffrey has played with.
Darnold is in a great position to rehabilitate his career with Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The former No. 3 overall pick provides the staff a quarterback with the arm strength to take more risks downfield. Still, Carolina’s offensive line could be a liability after not addressing it during the 2021 NFL Draft. This is a make-or-break season for Darnold.
Carolina’s running backs averaged 25.5 opportunities in 2020. This trend will continue in 2021 with McCaffrey being the focal point of the offense, despite the Panthers selecting Chuba Hubbard with the 126th overall pick in this year’s draft.
Hubbard should open the season as the backup and could slightly cut into McCaffrey’s opportunity share as Carolina looks to keep the veteran healthy for the entire season. Furthermore, Trenton Cannon will battle Rodney Smith to be named the third-string back.
Could McCaffrey be targeted even more in the passing game?
McCaffrey could see even more targets in 2021. The Panthers have 200 targets available, particularly in the middle of the field due to the departure of Curtis Samuel in free agency. Samuel averaged 6.5 targets per game.
The Panthers will do a better job of improving its target distribution. Based on our projections, the only other players on Carolina’s roster who could finish with more targets than McCaffrey are D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson.
In addition to division matchups, McCaffrey and the other Carolina skill-position players will benefit from matchups against the NFC East and AFC East. McCaffrey will be provided a high number of opportunities to prosper. He’s averaged 1.12 fantasy points per opportunity over the last three seasons.
Fantasy projection
Since 2018, McCaffrey has averaged 24.3 opportunities, 135 total yards, and 27 PPR fantasy points per game. He’s also played 91% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps. If healthy, McCaffrey should pick up where he left off in 2021.
Run CMC projects for around 350 opportunities, 1,600 total yards, and 13 touchdowns — he is firmly on the RB1 radar. The only other running back who has scored more PPR fantasy points than McCaffrey (949.2) since 2018 is Alvin Kamara (983).
Christian McCaffrey’s ADP
McCaffrey is being drafted 1.7 on average when you review redraft ADP data from Sleeper. The trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where he has an ADP of 1.04 as the RB1 overall.
Meanwhile, his ADP in Half PPR formats on Fleaflicker is 1.0. It would be surprising to see his ADP change between now and the season.
Should you draft McCaffrey in 2021?
Over the last three seasons, no other running back has a higher number of opportunities per game than McCaffrey (24.3). Ezekiel Elliott (23.7) and Saquon Barkley (22.6) rank second and third.
McCaffrey is only 25 years old and two seasons removed from the second-best fantasy football season of all time with 471.2 PPR fantasy points. He’s still in his physical prime.
Since 2010, there have been 74 running backs who have scored 250+ PPR fantasy points. 37 running backs have surpassed this threshold at age 25 or older. David Johnson finished the 2016 season with 408 PPR fantasy points at age 25. He averaged 18.3 rushing attempts and 7.5 targets per game. McCaffrey has the potential to replicate that kind of statistical production in 2021.
McCaffrey’s usage as a receiver out of the backfield provides him a higher ceiling than other running backs. He leads all running backs since 2018 with an average of 8.2 targets per game.
Eric is a Senior Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow Eric on Twitter @EricNMoody.