Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold’s 2020 season was forgettable from an NFL and fantasy football perspective. He was only active in 12 games, throwing for a dismal 2,208 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He hit rock bottom as former Jets head coach Adam Gase’s tenure in New York came to a close. Will Darnold find redemption with the Panthers in 2021 and offer value at his current fantasy outlook and ADP?
Sam Darnold’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Darnold hasn’t exceeded the expectations of fantasy managers since his rookie campaign in 2018. He is 24 years old, and other players have had career seasons once they are untethered from Gase. A perfect example is quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
The perception surrounding Gase was that he could elevate quarterback play. That’s what brought him to Miami. Unfortunately, the exact opposite happened with Dolphins starter Tannehill. He only threw for 4,974 passing yards and 36 touchdowns in two seasons with Gase.
However, Tannehill prospered with the Titans over the last two years, averaging 23 fantasy points per game. Tannehill has finished as a QB1 in 54% of his 28 active games in Tennessee.
Darnold is in a great position to have a career renaissance with Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The former No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft provides the staff a quarterback with the arm strength to take more risks downfield. This was something last season’s starter Teddy Bridgewater did not do.
However, Carolina’s offensive line could still be a liability after not addressing it during the 2021 NFL Draft. Still, the Panthers’ offensive line is an upgrade over the ones that protected Darnold in New York. He can put up elite statistical production when provided adequate protection.
An elite group of receiving weapons
The Panthers traded for Darnold prior to the NFL Draft and exercised his fifth-year option. He’s locked in for the 2021 season and mostly likely 2022 as well. Carolina has surrounded him with an exquisite supporting cast of receivers.
Robby Anderson’s versatility was prominently displayed in 2020. He caught 95 of 136 targets for 1,096 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Anderson is now reunited with Darnold, having spent time with the Jets together.
DJ Moore has generated consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards. He’s averaged nearly 8.4 targets, 5 receptions, 79 receiving yards, and 15 PPR fantasy points per game over his last 30 active contests.
Injuries derailed Christian McCaffrey’s 2020 campaign, but he’s been one of the top fantasy running backs over the last three seasons. Since 2018, McCaffrey has averaged 24.3 opportunities, 135 total yards, and 27 PPR fantasy points per game. He’s also played 91% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps. This trend should continue for McCaffrey in 2021. Furthermore, with Mike Davis now with the Falcons, rookie Chuba Hubbard will operate as his backup.
What will the target distribution look like?
We project Anderson, Moore, and McCaffrey to have the highest target shares in Carolina. Moreover, it would be surprising to see tight ends Ian Thomas and Dan Arnold surpass 50 combined targets.
In addition to division matchups, Darnold and his receivers will benefit from matchups against the NFC East and AFC East.
Fantasy projection
Bridgewater averaged nearly 17 fantasy points per game with the Panthers in 2020. This could be considered Darnold’s floor. We have him projected for 340 pass attempts, 3,900 receiving yards, 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.
Sam Darnold’s ADP
Darnold is essentially free when reviewing redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Darnold has an ADP of 211.51.
Meanwhile, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 232.7.
Should you draft Darnold in 2021?
Yes. Darnold can be viewed as a high-end QB3 in fantasy drafts this summer. He’ll have some QB1 performances in 2021 with an excellent supporting cast and favorable matchups.