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    Jameis Winston’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

    Jameis Winston's fantasy outlook and ADP will be determined by a training camp battle with Taysom Hill. Is this a battle he can win?

    Is Jameis Winston a value at his fantasy football outlook and current ADP? It’s hard to believe that it’s been a full season since he last started a game. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft has a chance to revitalize his career with New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton in the Crescent City.

    Jameis Winston’s fantasy outlook for 2021

    It’s important to briefly examine Winston’s past before discussing his 2021 fantasy outlook. The Heisman Trophy winner and national champion has finished as a QB1 in 42% of his 72 active games in the NFL. Winston averaged 35.4 pass attempts, 274 passing yards, and 20 fantasy points per game. Additionally, he recorded 360 passing air yards per game, second among quarterbacks from 2015 to 2019.

    Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians’ aggressive vertical passing offense was a blessing and a curse for Winston in 2019. He threw for 5,109 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, but also a whopping 30 interceptions.

    Winston became the first player in NFL history to throw for 30 or more touchdowns and 30 interceptions in a single season. He also set the single-season NFL record for pick-sixes. You may remember that quarterback Carson Palmer also set a career-high in interceptions during his time with Arians as a member of the Arizona Cardinals.

    The Buccaneers did not re-sign Winston once his rookie contract expired, and this led to New Orleans acquiring him in April of last year. The Saints’ offense struggled to create explosive plays through the passing game last season with Drew Brees under center. He played in 12 games and generated a career-low 18 passes of 20 or more yards. This is an area that Winston could fix, but he’ll be competing with Taysom Hill to be named the Saints’ starting quarterback.

    In 2020, Hill started four games from Weeks 11-14 while Brees was injured. Hill averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game and was the logical choice. After all, he’s been with the Saints since the 2018 season. Winston, on the other hand, had just joined the team during a COVID-19 altered offseason. Now, however, this is a training camp battle Winston can win.

    Sean Payton’s contributions to the Saints offense is underappreciated

    Brees is a future Hall of Famer. He was a Super Bowl champion, Super Bowl MVP, a two-time NFL Offensive Player of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year. His career really took off once he began working with offensive mastermind Sean Payton in 2006. Payton is one of the most creative play-callers in the league.

    Quarterbacks in Payton’s scheme have averaged 38 pass attempts and 297 passing yards per game since 2006. This trend should continue with Winston under center. In addition to divisional matchups, the Saints face the AFC East and NFC East. New Orleans will need to score as many points as possible against these opponents and not rely solely on its defense.

    Payton has a history of leaning heavily on his running backs between the tackles and as receivers out of the backfield. During his time in New Orleans, Saints’ RBs have averaged 34 opportunities (rushing attempts and targets). Both Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray have proven capable of handling the workload.

    How have pass catchers been utilized in Payton’s scheme?

    Wide receivers have only averaged 19 targets per game under Payton. Tight ends have averaged 8 targets, 5.3 receptions, 59.4 receiving yards, and 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game. The stage is set for Adam Trautman to have a breakout season due to the departures of Jared Cook and Josh Hill.

    The Saints have also consistently deployed one of the top offensive lines in the NFL since Payton’s arrival. Further helping matters, New Orleans returns all five of its starters this season. This will be the best offensive line Winston has played behind in his entire career.

    Winston could make an immediate fantasy impact playing in Payton’s offensive scheme and behind the team’s stout offensive line if given the opportunity. The season he spent on the sidelines was a blessing in disguise.

    Jameis Winston’s fantasy projection

    We have Winston projected for around 580 pass attempts, 4,300 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 2021.

    Jameis Winston’s ADP

    Winston is readily available in the middle of the 13th round of fantasy drafts when reviewing redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Winston has an ADP of 169.80 as the QB26 overall.

    Meanwhile, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 216.3. Winston’s ADP would change immediately once we receive concrete information about the winner of the Saints QB battle.

    Should you draft Winston in 2021?

    Yes. Winston is younger than Hill and has a superior statistical body of work in college and at the NFL level. It will be a surprise if Winston is not named the starter. He can be viewed as a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside.

    Eric is a Senior Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow Eric on Twitter @EricNMoody.

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