Heading into his fourth season in the NFL, Green Bay Packers WR Allen Lazard has seen his career marred by injuries and false fantasy football hope. With one last attempt to salvage his career with the organization, can Lazard finally put together a whole season? If so, what would Lazard’s fantasy outlook be, and could he be a worthwhile dart throw in the later rounds given his ADP in 2021?
Allen Lazard’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Most people forgot how good Lazard was in the opening weeks of 2020. Lazard had 13 receptions on 17 targets for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns in his short time on the field. From Weeks 1 through 3, Lazard was the team’s WR1 in fantasy points (52.1 to Davante Adams’ 48.2), and he was WR10 overall.
It seemed to be the continuation of the momentum that was gained during his second season. Despite not seeing a single target until Week 6 of 2019, Lazard was the Packers’ WR2. He caught 35 of his 52 targets for 447 yards and 3 touchdowns. Averaging 9.2 yards per target, Lazard was able to average 1.97 fantasy points per target.
However, all of his momentum was halted after he suffered a core muscle injury early in the second half on a 72-yard reception in Week 3. Lazard would undergo surgery to repair the injury and would miss the next six games. From that point on, Lazard struggled to find success in 2020.
From Week 11 through 17, Lazard was the WR70, averaging 6.5 ppg with 20 receptions (29 targets) for 197 yards and 1 touchdown. It’s not as if anyone else stepped up, though, as Lazard was still the fantasy WR2 on the Packers during this stretch.
Who is Lazard’s competition for the Packers’ WR2?
While the Packers did not select a WR early in the draft…again…they did draft Amari Rodgers in the third round (pick No. 85). Also, Devin Funchess is returning in 2021 after opting out of last season. Funchess can nearly match Lazard’s size (6’4″ to 6’5″). However, it’s hard to imagine he sees any real work, assuming he makes the team out of camp.
While it’s hard to put any faith in Lazard, he has as good of a shot as anyone on the Packers to be the WR2. Thus, he could be selected with one of your last picks. Whether or not he will have value will strictly depend on who is under center.
Fantasy projection
At least by this point, we have a relatively clear idea of what the Packers want to do under head coach Matt LaFleur.
As an offense, the Packers ran 62.8 plays per game last year (63.2 in 2019) while passing on 56.2% of the plays (59.8% in 2019). We also know that over 30% of the targets are going to go to Adams.
Over the last two seasons, Adams has averaged 32% of the team’s targets and 53% of the WR targets, along with 49 combined red-zone targets. The question is, who will see the rest? It’s just as likely that Aaron Jones ends up second in targets as he did the last two seasons. And this season, he does not have Jamaal Williams eating into those. Therefore, Jones could see 70 to 75 targets in 2021.
While I do believe Lazard ends up the WR2 on the Packers, it’s unlikely he has a target share that makes him a consistent fantasy producer. Of course, everything we have discussed revolves around Aaron Rodgers being under center. Until we have a decision from him, I have to base all projections on him being the QB in 2021.
With that being said, early projections have Lazard for around 80 targets with 50 to 55 receptions for around 700 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Allen Lazard’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Lazard is currently being selected at an ADP of 237.4 in half-PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Lazard’s ADP is 231.68. And on Fleaflicker, his ADP is currently 211.
Should you draft Lazard in 2021 for fantasy?
Has the chance to breakout passed Lazard? I know he was on my radar last season along with many others. But after a third disappointing season, are we willing to get burned again? I mean, I am a glutton for punishment at times.
He is the WR2 for Green Bay on NFC and in a pick ’em with Marquez Valdes-Scantling on Sleeper. We just have yet to see a consistent fantasy WR2 come out of Green Bay in several years.
Anytime you can roster a receiver targeted by an all-time great, that carries some value on its own. There is an upside with Lazard and his potential fantasy outlook, but it would all have to go perfectly. Given his late-round ADP, there is little risk as a final pick in a draft. There could be weeks where Lazard is a potential flex option. Yet, there is just as much of a chance that he busts as there is of him returning value.