After one of the most historic seasons in NFL history by a receiver, Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams enters the 2021 season in the top tier of his position. However, could Adams suffer a down season based on who is under center, or does his fantasy football outlook suggest he is a safe pick at his ADP regardless?
Davante Adams’ fantasy outlook for 2021
The season Adams had in 2020 was one for the record books — literally. Playing in just 14 games, Adams set a new single-season record for receiving touchdowns with 18. In total, Adams hauled in 115 of his 149 targets (33.9% share) for 1,374 total yards. Averaging 25.6 PPR points per game, Adams ended the season as the WR1 and 3.7 ppg clear of WR2 Tyreek Hill. However, this success is nothing new to Adams.
Since 2018, when Adams has been by most accounts the best receiver in the NFL, he has averaged 148 targets, 103 receptions for 1,252.3 yards, and 12 TDs per year. On a per-game basis, that is 7.5 receptions, 92 yards, and 0.88 TDs for 22.1 ppg. Adams is as consistent as it gets, finishing as a WR1 in 54% of his weeks and as a WR2 or better in 78% of his games (41).
Simply put, there is no weakness to his game as he routinely beats the best CBs the NFL has to offer. The only thing that could keep Adams from being the WR1 off the board is the situation at QB.
Adams is the WR1 if Rodgers stays
So long as Aaron Rodgers is in Green Bay, this is the number one duo in the NFL. There is a reason this duo in the NFL has had more TDs (58) than these two since 2016. However, is Adams QB proof?
There is a chance we might find out should Rodgers sit out, and we see Adams play with Jordan Love and potentially Blake Bortles in 2021. For fantasy, these are two distinct outlooks. With Rodgers, Adams is the definitive WR1. With Love/Bortles, I can not rank him any higher than a WR2 until we see how they can mesh, given the lack of reps and since we have never seen Love take a professional snap.
Adams’ fantasy projection
At least by this point, we have a relatively clear idea of what the Packers want to do under head coach Matt LaFleur.
As an offense, the Packers ran 62.8 plays per game last year (63.2 in 2019) while passing on 56.2% of the plays (59.8% in 2019). We also know that Adams is going to be force-fed targets. The Packers refuse to bring in other options at WR, leaving him to see — on average — 32% of the team targets, 53% of the wide receivers’ targets, along with 25 red-zone targets per season.
While these are just rough averages and not the whole picture of what all goes into projections, these help to paint an image. Adams is the Packers’ passing offense. I mean, do we really think that Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Devin Funchess, Equanimeous St. Brown, or rookie Amari Rodgers are going to break out and cut into Adams’ workload?
The only person who could have any say so would be Robert Tonyan, and that’s only for touchdowns. Last season, he tied Travis Kelce for the NFL lead at TE with 11 TDs while Adams set a new NFL record.
However you want to look at it, so long as Rodgers is there, Adams is about as safe of a player as there is. Early projections have Adams slated to see around 160 targets for 115 to 120 receptions for 1,350 to 1,400 yards, with close to 14 to 15 touchdowns.
Davante Adams’ fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Adams is currently the WR2 with an ADP of 10.6 in PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he falls to 17. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Adams is the WR2 with a 13.4 ADP.
Should you draft Davante Adams in 2021 for fantasy?
The only reason Adams is currently the WR2 in drafts behind Hill is the uncertainty with Rodgers. Early drafters are playing it safe and taking the surefire bet in Hill because we know that Patrick Mahomes is throwing the ball for the Chiefs. And I don’t know if anyone told you, but there is a big difference between Mahomes and Love/Bortles. That’s the kind of hard-hitting analysis I try to bring to the table for you all.
Once we know the resolution with Rodgers, we can act accordingly. If he is back in Green Bay, Adams is the WR1 and one of just three non-RBs who should be drafted inside the first round along with Hill and Kelce.
If not, then there is some complicated decision-making that needs to take place. While arguably the best WR in the NFL, I have to account for stability at QB. There are other WRs, in fact, who are close in talent to Adams but have far better situations.
Players like Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Keenan Allen all come to mind. Adams would likely slide in behind these players and enter the discussion with Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, and Terry McLaurin for who rounds out the top 10 to 12 receivers. No question Adams could outperform those rankings, but I would rather be happily surprised by that than confidently rank him as such.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.