Taysom Hill was a top-12 quarterback in fantasy football last season while Drew Brees was injured. Hill’s fantasy outlook and ADP for 2021 are tied to a training camp battle with Jameis Winston to win the starting job.
Note: Since the release of this outlook, Jameis Winston has been announced as the starter for the New Orleans Saints. Hill will be QB2, severely impacting his fantasy value heading into the season.
Taysom Hill’s fantasy outlook for 2021
In the four games Hill started last season, he finished as a QB1 in three out of four, averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game. Hill averaged 208.5 passing yards and 52.8 rushing yards per game. He averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game while completing 72% of his passes. It’s worth noting he averaged nearly 10 rushing attempts per game over that time frame as well.
Hill was the logical choice to start over Winston in 2020. After all, he’s been with the Saints since the 2018 season. Winston, on the other hand, had just joined the team during a COVID-19-altered offseason.
Winston has a stronger arm than Hill and a superior statistical body of work in his NFL career. And now, you’re thinking about Winston’s turnovers — Hill had 2 interceptions and 10 fumbles in 2020.
The Saints signed Hill to a contract extension immediately after Brees retired. The deal is for four years, $140 million, and includes a nearly $10 million signing bonus. The contract has three voidable years built into it.
Hill is 100% focused on playing quarterback heading into 2021. This is important because his previous offseason routine revolved around playing multiple positions. Over the last three seasons, Hill has 809 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. He also has 30 receptions for 336 yards and 7 touchdowns over that same period.
Sean Payton is the architect of the Saints’ electrifying offense
The Saints have one of the most productive offenses and quarterback-friendly systems in the NFL.
Since 2006, quarterbacks in head coach Sean Payton’s scheme have averaged 38 pass attempts and 297 passing yards per game. This trend should continue in 2021. In addition to divisional matchups, the Saints face the AFC East and NFC East. New Orleans will need to score as many points as possible against these opponents and not rely solely on its defense.
The Saints’ skill-position players
New Orleans will be without wide receiver Michael Thomas for at least the first month of the season. He delayed his ankle surgery to correct ligament damage after the 2020 season. Since 2016, he’s averaged 9.4 targets per game.
The Saints have other capable receiving weapons in running back Alvin Kamara, tight end Adam Trautman, and receivers Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway. Under Payton, however, receivers in New Orleans’ offense have only averaged 19 targets per game. The Saints have also leaned heavily on its stout offensive line and the running game. All five starters on the offensive line are returning for the 2021 season.
Payton has a history of leaning heavily on his running backs between the tackles and as receivers out of the backfield. During his time in New Orleans, Saints RBs have averaged 34 opportunities (rushing attempts and targets).
This bodes well for Hill or Winston’s fantasy outlook. Both could make an immediate fantasy impact for the Saints’ offense this season.
Fantasy projection
If Hill is named the starter and plays a full season, he projects for around 340 pass attempts, 3,300 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He also projects for around 135 rushing attempts, 750 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns.
Taysom Hill’s ADP
Hill is readily available outside of the top 15 rounds of fantasy drafts when reviewing redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Hill has an ADP of 210.13 as the QB31 overall.
Should you draft Hill in 2021?
The Saints’ quarterback situation is nearly as cloudy as the one the Houston Texans have. Payton is unlikely to announce a starter until after the preseason concludes, which isn’t an optimal scenario for fantasy managers. It is possible that Hill and Winston both make starts in 2021. They are best selected as your third QB in 2QB or superflex formats.