The biggest riser of the entire NFL Draft process, New York Jets QB Zach Wilson now finds himself as the face of a franchise at the beginning of a rebuild. Can Wilson rise to the expectations that come with his draft investment, or does his fantasy football outlook suggest he might be better left off your team at his current ADP?
Zach Wilson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Every year there is a player that goes on a meteoric rise in the pre-draft process seemingly out of nowhere. In 2020, that was Joe Burrow and his record-setting season at LSU. This season, that was Wilson at BYU.
In his 2018 and 2019 seasons, Wilson was not an NFL-caliber quarterback. He struggled with accuracy and consistency, completing 64% of his passes for 3,960 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 18 games. Then 2020 hit, and Wilson looked like a completely different QB.
He connected on 247 of his 336 attempts in 12 games (73.5%) for 3,692 yards with 33 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. His momentum continued to build during the offseason, hitting its peak at his pro day. There, he showcased his ability to put power on off-platform throws, which created an audible stir amongst evaluators.
All offseason rumors linked the Jets to Wilson, and that became a reality as the Jets selected him with the No.2 overall pick, making him the franchise’s highest-drafted quarterback since Joe Namath in 1965. No pressure, right?
Anytime a rookie comes into the NFL, especially a QB, we never truly know what we are going to get in terms of production. Throw that QB on a team in a rebuild with a rookie head coach, and it’s even more of a question.
What we do know is that Wilson is a gamer. He is someone who wants the spotlight and will compete on every snap. He finds himself with a solid receiving corps and zero competition behind him. While his fantasy outlook right now is that of a QB2, especially for superflex formats, Wilson might very well surprise all of us in his rookie season.
Fantasy projection
Anytime you try to make projections, it is a game of making the best educated guess you can. When it involves a team with a completely brand new coaching staff, all bets are off.
I will say this — the Jets will be a better team in 2021. Sure, that is a low bar to cross, but it is a start. I like a lot of the moves they made this offseason. The defense was a significant focus, along with upgrading the offensive line by selecting the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker. The most important addition came via subtraction when they moved on from HC Adam Gase. He went from being an NFL head coach to an offensive coordinator for a high school football team. Let that one sink in for a second.
Because of this, we likely see a more competitive team overall than the one that averaged just 57.2 plays (31st), 279.9 yards (32nd), and 15.2 points per game (32nd). The question for Wilson comes down to how much do they try to throw at him all at once? While it sounds like he is grasping the playbook, it all changes when the guys on the other side of the ball are allowed to hit you and want to be the one to give that “Welcome to the NFL” moment.
What offensive schemes will the Jets run?
We know the type of offense the Jets are going to use. Mike LaFleur is a QB Collective product, so his offensive blueprint will be similar to that of the 49ers, Rams, Packers, and several other teams. It’s a balanced offense that helps to simplify the terminology and is a QB-friendly passing game — the perfect kind of playbook for a rookie.
No question, there will be bumps in the road. However, the improved weapons with Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Keelan Cole , and Michael Carter, along with Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims, should be adequate enough for solid results in Year 1.
Based on early projections, Wilson will complete around 62% of his passes (350-of-565) for 4,100-4,200 yards, 24 TDs, and 12 interceptions. Furthermore, he could add about 225 yards and 2 more scores on the ground.
Zach Wilson’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Wilson has an ADP of 199.6 in PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he jumps to 109.3. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Wilson has an ADP of 208.73.
Should you draft Wilson in 2021 for fantasy?
For as much hype as there was surrounding Wilson at the 2021 NFL Draft, he is the QB4 of the rookie class from a fantasy perspective behind Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance. All three of those players have a higher ceiling when you factor in their dual-threat ability — especially for Fields and Lance. If all four QBs were Week 1 starters, Wilson would be the fourth option. But as of right now, only Lawrence and he are guaranteed Week 1 starters. Still, we also need to keep our expectations in check and know that Wilson could very well struggle if history has any say.
From 2010 to 2020, 33 QBs were selected inside the first round of the NFL Draft. Of those QBs, only five finished as a QB1 in their rookie year. Remember, there was a reason these teams had early picks after all. The Jets only have Wilson because the Jaguars managed to have a worse season. I believe the Jets are moving in the right direction for once. But I am doubtful that equates to high-level fantasy play and Wilson becoming a breakout Day 1.
In 2021, Wilson is at best a QB2 (or a QB3 with upside on a superflex roster). In 1QB formats, where only 10-12 are started each week, he should not be rostered. Let’s give him a few games to show us what he can do before starting him in weekly formats.