George Kittle’s, Deebo Samuel’s health key to driving 49ers offense to success in 2021

Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are vital components of a San Francisco 49ers offense that is lethal when operating at full capacity. The NFL is no stranger to seeing the 49ers hum. Unfortunately, like the rest of San Francisco’s roster last season, they struggled to stay on the field.

However, the data shows that they were both exceptional when healthy. The two players’ return will be a massive boon for whoever is playing quarterback for the 49ers offense in 2021.

Injuries hampered Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in 2020

The 49ers were ravaged by injuries last season, and Samuel and Kittle were primary examples of this problem. Neither was able to play even half the season, with Kittle missing eight games and Samuel nine. As a result, their statistics were far less impressive than what we’ve seen from them in the past.

In a vacuum, Kittle still had a decent season, totaling 634 yards and 2 touchdowns. That isn’t awful for a tight end, but we know he is capable of far better. Samuel fared even worse. After an excellent rookie campaign, he totaled just 391 yards and 1 touchdown in his second season in the NFL.

Samuel and Kittle’s lack of playing time, and their resulting low statistics, make evaluating their performances last season difficult. We need a way to compare them that doesn’t rely solely on their box scores.

Using advanced metrics to analyze Samuel and Kittle’s 2020 season

To properly evaluate Samuel and Kittle, let’s turn to the Offensive Value Metric (OVM). The OVM is an advanced metric created by the (Bx) Movement to measure players based on how much impact they had on creating their statistics, rather than the statistics themselves.

It is an excellent tool for measuring players’ performances like Samuel and Kittle, whose box scores don’t properly reflect how well they were actually playing. And they were genuinely spectacular last season.

Samuel led the NFL with an overall grade of 41.65, and Kittle wasn’t far behind — his grade of 40.65 ranked third. Put simply, they were among the most effective players in the NFL in 2021.

Examining Samuel and Kittle’s weekly grades

For further evidence of just how excellent Samuel and Kittle were last season, let’s look at how they performed on a weekly basis. The charts below show their grades from each week of the 2020 season, represented by the black dots. For comparison, the yellow lines represent the league average OVM grades at their respective positions during that season.

Due to their injuries, there isn’t a great deal of data on either player. But what we do have available is extremely impressive. Samuel and Kittle only earned one grade below their respective positional averages between the two of them. Even that grade — a 25.52-point outing by Samuel in Week 5 — is far from terrible. Across all qualifying wide receivers and tight ends, there were well over 100 grades that didn’t even reach 20 points last season.

Samuel balanced out that poor (in this case, a relative term) game with a spectacular Week 7 performance in which he earned an unbelievable grade of 63.33. That was the highest grade received by any player in 2020 and the third-highest weekly grade in five years of OVM data.

Kittle didn’t have the same ludicrous peak, although his high of 53 points is still incredibly impressive. And, unlike Samuel, he didn’t earn a single grade below 30 points.

Clearly, while their sample sizes are small, Samuel and Kittle got everything they could and more out of those limited opportunities.

Samuel and Kittle had some of the best metrics in the NFL in 2020

To earn such stellar grades, Samuel and Kittle needed to perform exceptionally well on the advanced metrics involved in calculating them.

Let’s start with perhaps the most crucial statistic for pass catchers — catch percentage. Both Samuel and Kittle performed well above the league average on this metric. Samuel caught 75% of his targets, which was tied for 14th in the NFL. Kittle did slightly better, ranking ninth with a catch percentage of 76.19%.

However, excellent as their catch percentages were, Samuel and Kittle truly shined on two of the other most important metrics for calculating a pass catcher’s OVM grade.

Up first — separation. Samuel averaged 4.6 yards of separation when targeted, the most in the NFL. Kittle, meanwhile, averaged 3.9, tied for sixth. Both players were consistently able to get away from defenders, making their quarterback’s job far easier.

The pair also had exceptional yards-after-the-catch statistics. Samuel averaged an astonishing 12.3 yards after catching the ball, which led the NFL. That number was 4.4 yards higher than expected according to the NFL’s advanced metrics, a differential that also ranked first.

Kittle wasn’t quite so spectacular, but he still did a better job than most other NFL players. His 6.6 average yards after the catch was tied for eighth and was 2.3 yards higher than expected, which was the third-highest differential.

Put simply, Samuel and Kittle were among the best players in the NFL at doing the things that make a pass catcher great. They got open, caught the ball, and made plays after the catch. If they had stayed healthy, we likely would be looking back at 2020 as elite seasons for both of them.

San Francisco’s quarterback situation is in flux, but that shouldn’t matter for the 49ers offense in 2021

Samuel and Kittle might find themselves in a 49ers offense that looks significantly different than the one they played in before getting injured last season. As it stands, we still don’t know if incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo will keep his job or if rookie Trey Lance will take over immediately in Week 1.

However, head coach Kyle Shanahan has proven that he can have offensive success even with subpar talent at the league’s premier position. And both Lance and Garoppolo should be able to outperform the likes of Nick Mullens.

At any rate, a healthy 49ers offense is clearly dangerous no matter who is under center, thanks in large part to the efforts of Samuel and Kittle. Hopefully, they can stay healthy in 2021 and help the 49ers return to the dominant form they displayed just two seasons ago.

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