After what could only be described as a sensational season, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen heads into 2021 with all of fantasy football and Bills Mafia expecting a repeat performance of greatness. But is that a realistic fantasy outlook, or is Allen being overvalued at his current ADP?
Josh Allen’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Unless you were a frequent visitor to Orchard Park or had perfect table toppling form, few, if any, could have suspected the meteoric ascension Allen was about to undertake in 2020.
After all, in 2019, Allen was 49th of 69 QBs in catchable-pass percentage (70.5%), and 53rd in on target throws (63.8%), per Sports Info Solutions. Additionally, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, his -3.7 expected completion percentage was fifth-worst amongst all tracked QBs. He never even threw for over 270 yards in a game.
Then 2020 hits, and wow…did it hit.
Allen finished 2020 as the QB1 in fantasy football and became just the third QB since 2014 to cross the 400-point threshold (405.2). Not only was Allen tied for the third-most consistent QB in weekly finishes (62.5% as a QB1), but his seven games inside the top-three were the most among all signal-callers.
Allen generated over 4,500 passing yards, 421 rushing yards, and 45 touchdowns while on his way to a second-place finish in MVP voting. In nine of 16 games, Allen recorded 3+ touchdowns and 270+ passing yards. Among QBs with a minimum of 20 dropbacks, he was eighth in target throws (73.8%) and 29th in catchable passes (77.3%). Allen’s expected completion rate was the second-best in the NFL at +4.6% and was fourth overall with a 69.2% completion percentage.
Even if we want to consider this to be Allen’s ceiling, which it very well might be, I do not expect him or the offense to regress. Allen turned a corner that few QBs ever could, and you do not do that by luck. Allen is one of the top QBs in the NFL, and his fantasy outlook suggests another extremely successful season in 2021.
Allen’s fantasy projection
I think the Bills showed us who they really are last season — legitimate Super Bowl contenders. You don’t mess around, go 13-3, win the AFC East for the first time since 1995, and change everything up.
The Bills went from a 54.9% pass rate in 2019 (26th) to a pass-happy 61.7% in 2020 (11th). It was a complete shift in philosophy. They went from running four-plus wide receiver sets on 0.006% of snaps (7) to the second-most in 2020 at 16.3% (198).
Even with the loss of John Brown, the Bills’ passing corps remains basically the same and enters 2021 with 85.5% of their targets accounted for. If anything, the receivers have gotten better.
During free agency, the Bills added 11-year veteran Emmanual Sanders. He is coming off a one-year stint with the New Orleans Saints, where he recorded 61 receptions on 82 targets for 726 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Throughout his career, Sanders has been a model of consistency. Since 2012, he has registered less than 620 yards just once (2015) with seven seasons of 720+ receiving yards. Even if he is on a snap count, he is the perfect replacement for Brown in the offense.
Gabriel Davis is going to improve in his second season. The only question is Cole Beasley, but unless something changes, I will not alter any early projections.
Based on early projections, I expect much of the same this year from Allen. Currently, I have Allen projected for 5,100 to 5,200 total yards and 43 to 45 total touchdowns.
Josh Allen’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Allen is currently being selected at an ADP of 35.9 in PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks see an increased value, Allen has an overall ADP of 4. According to Fleaflicker, Allen’s ADP is 34.3. Additionally, according to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Allen is the QB2 with a 38.37 ADP.
Should you draft Josh Allen in 2021?
For me, it all depends on the format you are playing in. A fantasy league’s format massively affects how I approach the QB position.
In 1QB formats, I am one of the last members in the league to select a quarterback. While I love Allen, it’s hard for me to overlook the value of QBs going later in drafts such as Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, or even Matthew Stafford. Each of these passers is going between 50 to 60 picks later than Allen. Do they give the same consistency or even ceiling? No, but I’d prefer to spend that same pick on my RB3 or WR3.
On the other hand, in superflex or 2QB formats, I’m all-in on Allen. Allen is my QB2 in 2021, and his fantasy outlook could even be better than last season. He has another year with Stefon Diggs, improved WRs, and is still the goal-line back of the offense. In the end, there are four or five QBs with a legitimate shot at the QB1 crown — and Allen is one of them.