Stefon Diggs was nothing short of incredible in his first season with the Buffalo Bills. After all, many wondered how he would fare with a once considered inaccurate QB in Josh Allen and a run-focused offense. Fresh off the heels of the best season of his career, can Diggs have a repeat performance in 2021, or does his fantasy football outlook suggest his ADP has now surpassed his potential value?
Stefon Diggs’ fantasy outlook for 2021
At a certain point, when someone does something incredible, words fail to describe it accurately. That was Diggs in 2020 and his instant connection with Allen. We always wondered what would happen if Diggs were to be paired with an elite QB. But none of us outside of #BillsMafia expected that player to be Allen.
Diggs ended last season as the WR3 in PPR formats with an astonishing 20.5 points per game. Playing on 89% of the snaps, Diggs led the NFL in targets (166), receptions (127), yards (1,535), and tied for 12th in touchdowns (8). His 76.5% catch percentage was the best of his career and fifth in the NFL among receivers with 50 or more targets.
In 2020, Diggs finished as the WR6 or better (5) in more weeks than he had outside the top 36 (3).
Have we seen the ceiling for Diggs? Probably, but I don’t expect to see him regress either. The only difference is that he is no longer a crazy value on draft day.
With target volume being a significant predictor of future success, Diggs is locked into a similar target-hog role in 2021. I fully expect more of the same out of him in fantasy this season. Additionally, we could see him hit double-digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.
Diggs has as good a chance as anyone to be the WR1 overall in fantasy when the dust settles in 2021.
Stefon Diggs’ fantasy projection
Last year, Diggs saw a massive 29% target share and commanded a 39% share of the wide receiver targets. He had double-digit targets in nine of 16 games and averaged 10.3 on the season (third-highest).
As of this moment, the Bills head into the season with only a 14.5% vacated target share (83) following the departure of John Brown to the Las Vegas Raiders. Should Cole Beasley choose to retire — which has now become a topic of discussion — this would jump to 33.2% as he was second on the team in targets with 107.
While the majority of these would be soaked up by Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and Emmanuel Sanders, there is always the chance Diggs could see some as well. While likely out of reach, Diggs could make a run at Michael Thomas’ single-season target record of 185 set in 2019.
When Sean McDermott said they pass the ball to set up the run, they meant it. The Bills went from a 54.9% pass rate in 2019 (26th) to a pass-happy 61.7% in 2020 (11th). Furthermore, only the Arizona Cardinals (217 snaps) ran more plays with four-plus wide receiver sets than the Bills (198). After you go and win the AFC East for the first time since 1995, you don’t change what worked.
I am all in on Diggs in fantasy this season. Early projections have him around 165 targets, 115 receptions, 1,550 yards, and 9 touchdowns in a repeat of last year’s success.
Stefon Diggs’ ADP
According to Sleeper, Diggs is currently being selected as the WR3 with an ADP of 13.8 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks see an increased value, Diggs has a 20.1 ADP. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Diggs is the WR3 with a 13.59 ADP. On Fleaflicker, Diggs is being selected 14th overall.
Should you draft Stefon Diggs in fantasy in 2021?
Do you like winning? If so, draft Diggs in 2021 and rejoice every Sunday and become a member of Bills Mafia. Just leave the tables to the professionals. Unfortunately, we do not get to enjoy the WR27 in ADP (65 overall) of last year. Can you believe Diggs was going after Marquise Brown? No one is afraid of Diggs’ fantasy outlook this season after watching the masterclass that was 2020.
Do not let that dissuade you from selecting Diggs at his current ADP that places him in at the turn in 12-team fantasy leagues. Yes, wide receiver is deep, and it is a position you can “wait” on to find talent. But Diggs is one of maybe four WRs who you can make the argument for to finish as the WR1 overall. Traditionally, I am running back heavy in fantasy drafts, but if Diggs was still around in the early second round, I will pounce and never look back.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.