Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin entered last season with huge expectations after finishing as a WR2 or better in 65% of his games in PPR formats in 2019. He was also getting a new quarterback in future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Godwin missed four games in 2020 but still led the Buccaneers in receiving yards per game (70). Will Godwin finish as a WR1 in 2021, and does his fantasy football outlook prove he is of value at his current ADP?
Chris Godwin’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Godwin signed a $15.9 million franchise tender for 2021 in March. The move doesn’t preclude the wide receiver and Tampa Bay from reaching an agreement on an extension. Godwin has earned a long-term deal, especially when you analyze his per-game regular-season production in recent years.
Godwin has averaged nearly 8 targets (4.5 from the slot), 6 receptions, 83.6 receiving yards, and 18 PPR fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. He’s also averaged 81 receiving air yards per game, a metric that indicates how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught.
Godwin finished 2020 with 65 receptions, 840 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.
The Buccaneers have become the most complete offense in the NFL. Brady is still very capable, even at age 44. Tampa Bay simply surrounded him with offensive weapons that have allowed him to return to form.
Tampa Bay’s group of wide receivers is the best in the NFL
Godwin and wide receiver Mike Evans operated as 1A and 1B last year, and that trend expects to continue in 2021 for the Super Bowl-winning duo.
Evans became the first player to begin their career with seven consecutive seasons of 1,000 or more receiving yards. In PPR formats, he’s finished as a WR1 in 37% of his 106 games.
The Buccaneers also have former perennial Pro Bowler Antonio Brown on the roster. Brown joined the Buccaneers in Week 9. From then on, he averaged 5.6 receptions and 60.4 receiving yards to close out the regular season.
The Buccaneers are loaded at tight end
Additionally, tight end Rob Gronkowski returns to the Buccaneers on a one-year contract. Gronk caught 45 of 77 targets for 623 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 16 games in 2020. Tampa Bay also has tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate to fill out the position.
Furthermore, Tampa Bay signed former Bengals running back Giovani Bernard this offseason. He has the potential to become the Buccaneers’ version of New England Patriots running back James White.
The Buccaneers’ offensive line is one of the best in the NFL
Tampa Bay’s offensive line is projected to be one of the top run-blocking and pass-blocking units in the NFL, despite losing offensive tackle Joe Haeg in free agency. The Buccaneers still have adequate depth to stabilize the unit should any injuries arise.
Fantasy projection
There is no reason that Godwin should lose momentum this season. He projects for around 127 targets, 80 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. Godwin provides you with a low-end WR2 floor and a low-end WR1 ceiling in PPR formats.
Chris Godwin’s ADP
Godwin currently has an ADP of 42.0 in half PPR formats on Fleaflicker. That number is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Godwin has an ADP of 40.11 as the WR16 overall. Additionally, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 41.2.