Did you know that Mike Evans has seven consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards? And yet, he continues to be undervalued in fantasy football. Evans is the No. 1 receiver in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ crowded wide receiver corps that also includes Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. This will be the 28-year-old receiver’s second season catching passes from future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. But what is Evans’ fantasy outlook and ADP for the 2021 season? Can he exceed expectations?
Mike Evans’ fantasy outlook for 2021
After averaging 9.3 targets per game from 2014 to 2019, Evans only averaged 7 targets per game last season. Nevertheless, he averaged 15.5 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as a WR2 or better in 56% of his games. That’s because most of Evans’ fantasy production was touchdown driven.
Evans had a career-low 109 targets, but 14 of them came inside the 10-yard line. In fact, the only other receivers who scored more touchdowns than Evans (13) were Adam Thielen (14), Tyreek Hill (15), and Davante Adams (18).
Efficiency is important
The good news is that Evans was really efficient with the targets that went his way. This is quantified when examining his expected points (EP) and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE).
EP is based on the average fantasy point value of plays in similar down, distance, and field position instances. FPOE, on the other hand, takes a player’s actual fantasy points and subtracts out the expected points.
The reader’s digest version of EP is that it measures volume while FPOE measures a player’s efficiency. As it turns out, Evans averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game more than expected. Accordingly, Thielen (4.1), Stefon Diggs (3.6), and D.K. Metcalf (3.4) are other receivers who had similar FPOEs to Evans.
The Buccaneers’ offense could be even better in 2021
Evans wasn’t much of a factor in the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. He secured his only target for 31 yards. Regardless, the future looks bright for Evans.
The union of Brady, Evans, and receiver Chris Godwin in Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians’ vertical passing attack was a match made in fantasy football heaven. Evans and Godwin both ranked in the top 16 receivers in PPR fantasy points per game last season.
It is frightening to think that the Buccaneers’ offense could be even better in 2021. Tampa Bay ranked seventh in pass attempts (38.2) and third in passing yards (282.5) per game. This trend expects to continue in 2021, especially with the quality of their offensive line.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line
The Buccaneers’ offensive line is projected to be one of the top run-blocking and pass-blocking units in the NFL, despite losing offensive tackle Joe Haeg in free agency. Tampa Bay still has adequate depth to stabilize the unit should any injuries arise.
Time to bring all of these together in Evans’ fantasy projection.
Mike Evans’ fantasy projection
From 2014 to 2019, Evans averaged 80.7 receiving yards and 135.2 receiving air yards per game. Air yards indicate how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught.
Evans’ numbers in these two statistical areas decreased in 2020, however. Similarly, his target share and air yards share, even in the Buccaneers’ vertical passing offense, are unlikely to increase in 2021.
Evans will bring volatility to your fantasy lineups. He is best viewed as someone who could provide you with a high-end WR2 ceiling and a low-end WR3 floor. Evans projects around 115 targets, 1,000 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns this season.
Mike Evans’ ADP
Evans is readily available at the start of the fourth round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. This trend is also similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Evans has an ADP of 38.5 as the WR14 overall. His ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is marginally earlier at 36.3.
Should you draft Evans in 2021?
Absolutely. Still, I prefer to draft Evans as my WR2 and not my WR1. It is important to have the proper expectations when adding him to the roster of your fantasy team. The irony is that Evans’ situation is similar to a few other receivers being drafted in the fourth round, such as Julio Jones and Amari Cooper.
At any rate, it’s hard not to recommend Evans, considering the offense that he’s tied to.