Does O.J. Howard’s fantasy football outlook show he can be of value at his current ADP? He only played in four games last season before a ruptured Achilles tendon derailed his 2020 campaign. The fifth-year tight end may finally break out catching passes from future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady in 2021.
O.J. Howard’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians said, “the sky is the limit” for Howard in 2021. After all, his presence does make Tampa Bay’s offense even more deadly.
Howard’s 146 receiving yards from Weeks 1-4 were the most by any tight end and third-most on the team behind wide receivers Mike Evans and Scotty Miller. Howard scored 2 touchdowns in those four games, joining Evans as the only Buccaneers with multiple touchdown receptions during that time frame. Additionally, Howard finished as a TE1 in two of those four games.
The 2021 season is a make-or-break one for Howard. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. The Buccaneers were proactive this offseason, keeping their Super Bowl LV championship-winning team nearly intact. Brady’s dominant group of pass catchers, unfortunately, lowers Howard’s fantasy ceiling.
The Buccaneers’ abundance of receiving options
Evans became the first player to begin their career with seven consecutive seasons of 1,000 or more receiving years. He’s finished as a WR1 in 37% of his 106 active games in PPR formats.
In 2019, Chris Godwin was coming off of a career season. He averaged nearly 20 PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, a host of injuries prevented him from replicating that performance last season. Nevertheless, Godwin averaged 21 PPR fantasy points per game in his final three outings.
Last but not least, Antonio Brown joined the Buccaneers in Week 9. He averaged 5.6 receptions and 60.4 receiving yards to close out the regular season.
This past offseason, Rob Gronkowski signed another one-year deal with the Buccaneers. He caught 45 of 77 targets for 623 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 16 games last year. Before Howard’s injury, Gronk was primarily used as a blocker. It’s also worth noting Cameron Brate is still on the roster and was the most efficient Tampa Bay tight end in the postseason.
Moreover, the Buccaneers acquired former Bengals running back Giovani Bernard this offseason. He has the potential to become the Buccaneers’ version of James White.
Fantasy projection
It’s important to briefly examine Howard’s past before discussing his projection for 2021. The Buccaneers selected Howard 17th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. That was the highest pick Tampa Bay has ever used on a tight end.
Howard played in only 38 games from 2017 to 2019, averaging 3.7 targets per game. He finished as a TE1 in 32% of his games in PPR formats.
Do you remember the rumors last spring after the Buccaneers signed Gronkowski that Howard would be traded? Prior to his injury, Howard saw 72% of his offensive snaps in two or three tight end sets.
Gronkowski’s midseason reawakening will likely keep him ahead of Howard in the chain of command. Gronk finished as a TE1 in 46% of his games in PPR formats from Weeks 4-17.
Howard’s fantasy production will be volatile on a week-to-week basis. He projects for around 48 targets, 30 receptions, 430 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns.
O.J. Howard’s ADP
Howard is available outside of the 15th round in fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. In pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, Howard has an ADP of 255.77.
Furthermore, Howard’s ADP on Sleeper is 250.5.
Should you draft Howard in 2021?
Although Howard owns stellar athleticism and on-field talent, I would only draft him in very deep formats. He can be viewed as a low-end TE3 in PPR, even with a fully healthy Brady under center.