While not quite as productive as his 2019 NFL MVP season, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson remains one of the most valuable QBs in fantasy football. Now, heading into 2021 with a revamped wide receiver room, has Jackson become a value at his current ADP, and what is his fantasy outlook for this season?
Lamar Jackson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
In his third season in the NFL, Jackson completed 64.4% of his passes for 2,757 yards and 26 touchdowns. In addition, Jackson showed he is still the best rushing QB in the league, taking off 159 times for a position-leading 1,005 yards and 7 touchdowns.
And yet, from a fantasy perspective, Jackson underperformed for the majority of the season. He was disappointing because, as one of the highest-drafted QBs, he finished outside the QB1 range six times in the first 11 weeks. The star signal-caller was the QB9 over this stretch, scoring 20.3 points per game.
But then Jackson got hot.
From Week 13 on (missed Week 12 due to NFL protocols), Jackson was the QB2 while averaging 27.7 ppg. In those final five games, he was the QB6, QB1, QB5, QB11, and QB8, respectively. The Ravens, as an offense, found themselves in the latter half of the season. If you recall, Jackson came out and said that teams were calling out their plays on defense.
The thing to remember is that while Jackson has week-winning upside, he does not get it done the same way as Patrick Mahomes. If you spread out those final games to a 17-week season, Jackson is a 2,600-yard passer. On the other hand, he is also a 1,400-yard rusher. The volume will always be the issue for Jackson through the air, but his rushing ability is otherworldly.
Will he ever be the most stable fantasy QB? No. But if you prescribe to the early-QBs mantra, Jackson brings one of the highest weekly ceilings.
Fantasy projection
Do I think we will see MVP-level Jackson in 2021? Probably not, but I do believe we see a more concerted effort to throw the ball. After attempting a league-low 406 passes, the Ravens spent the offseason upgrading the receivers.
They were linked to nearly every big-named receiver during free agency, and while they missed out, they still made noticeable improvements — especially with rookie Rashod Bateman. The amount of movement alone suggests to me an increased passing rate in 2021.
It will not be to the extent of the Buffalo Bills when they went from 54.9% to 61.7% in 2020, but I believe we see an increase from 44.1% in 2020 to closer to a 50/50 rate in 2021.
That alone would increase the dropbacks from 438 to 530 (31.2 per game). The narrative of Jackson not being a competent passer has gone too far, and if given this amount of volume, he could prove a lot of people wrong. It would also significantly increase his floor for fantasy as to not being as reliant on his legs to carry your team every week.
Early projections have Jackson passing for 3,200 to 3,400 yards, rushing around 150 times for close to 1,000 yards, and scoring around 33-35 total touchdowns.
Lamar Jackson’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Jackson is currently being selected at an ADP of 44.6 in PPR formats. In superflex leagues, given the priority of quarterbacks, he rises to 9.6. On Fleaflicker, his ADP sits at 46.3. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Jackson has an ADP of 55.08.
Should you draft Jackson in 2021?
Whether or not you should select Jackson comes down to your philosophy on how you attack the fantasy draft. Everyone has a different strategy, especially when it comes to quarterbacks.
If you are someone who does select an early-round QB, Jackson is an excellent pick. There will always be weekly volatility when the Ravens decide to run 40+ times, but the upside is undeniable.
Any given week, Jackson can throw for a pair of TDs while rushing for 100 or more yards with 2 more scores. In a 4-point per passing touchdown format, that rushing ability is fantasy gold. Since 2018, 22 of the top 36 QBs rushed for over 200 yards, with 17 of the top 24 in the last two years hitting this mark. Jackson is arguably the best of them all.
Late round QB options
Now, if you are a late-round QB person, he will be out of your price range. I don’t know if calling him the budget version is entirely accurate, but a player with a very similar profile would be Jalen Hurts. Questions about his arm are exaggerated, and he has incredible rushing upside. Does that sound a bit familiar? In his three games started in 2020, he was just one yard behind Jackson in rushing.
Another QB with mobility but a much higher passive floor would be Ryan Tannehill. We liked him when he only had A.J. Brown. Now, we love Tannehill with Brown and Julio Jones. Likely going as a back-end QB1, the upside is hard to overlook if you pass on an early QB like Jackson, given his ADP.